Ideanomics (Ideanomics) Predictability Rank

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What is Ideanomics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ideanomics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ideanomics (Ideanomics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery » Ideanomics Inc (NAS:IDEX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IDEX:Mexico

Address

1441 Broadway, Suite 5116, New York, NY, USA, 10018

Website

https://www.ideanomics.com

Ideanomics Inc is an American multinational company engaged in accelerating the commercial adoption of electric vehicles. The company conducts its operations in one segment with three business units; Ideanomics Mobility's focus is electric vehicles, including mid and last-mile delivery trucks and vans, tractors, and two-wheelers. There are five operating companies within the Ideanomics Mobility business unit: VIA, Energica, Solectrac, United States Hybrid, and Tree Technologies, Ideanomics Energy's focus is charging and energy-related products and services, and Ideanomics Capital's focus is providing financing support for the Company's Mobility and Energy business units. Geographically, the company operates in North America, Asia, and Europe.

Executives

Alfred Poor	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	55 BROADWAY, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stephen Eric Johnston	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4950 SUSANS WAY, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Shane Mcmahon	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1241 EST MAIN STREET, STAMFORD CT 06902
John Wallace	director	55 BROADWAY, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Bruno Zheng Wu	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	EASTERN FANGZHENG ROAD, SOUTHERN DONGYING VILLAGE, HANCUNHE TOWN F4 102423
Sean Wang	director	C/O WECAST NETWORK, INC., BUILDING B4, TAI MING INT'L. BUSINESS CT, TAI HU TOWN, TONGZHOU DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 101116
Xiuping Wang	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O WECAST NETWORK, INC., BUILDING B4, TAI MING INT'L. BUSINESS CT, TAI HU TOWN, TONGZHOU DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 101116
Randy Huang	officer: Chief Technical Officer	C/O WECAST NETWORK, INC., BUILDING B4, TAI MING INT'L. BUSINESS CT, TAI HU TOWN, TONGZHOU DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 101116
Yi Xu	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O WECAST NETWORK, INC., BUILDING B4, TAI MING INT'L. BUSINESS CT, TAI HU TOWN, TONGZHOU DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 101116
Bing Yang	director, officer: CEO and Director	375 GREENWICH ST., SUITE 516, NEW YORK NY 10013
Mingcheng Tao	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	3340 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 900, ATLANTA GA 30326
Polly Wang	director	EASTERN FANGZHENG ROAD, SOUTHERN DONGYING VILLAGE, HANCUNHE TOWN F4 102423
Jian Ren Fan	director	305-36 ROOM, 3RD FLOOR, D BUILDING, TIANJIN ECONOMIC-TECHNOLOGICAL DVLP AREA, TIANJIN CITY F4 300280
Sun Seven Stars Hong Kong Cultural Development Ltd	10 percent owner	EASTERN FANGZHENG ROAD, SOUTHERN DONGYING VILLAGE, HANCUNHE TOWN F4 F4 102423
Shanghai Sun Seven Stars Cultural Development Ltd	10 percent owner	EASTERN FANGZHENG ROAD, SOUTHERN DONGYING VILLAGE, HANCUNHE TOWN F4 F4 102423