Inuvo (INUV) Predictability Rank

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What is Inuvo Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Inuvo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Inuvo Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Inuvo Inc (AMEX:INUV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CD5N:Germany

Address

500 President Clinton Avenue, Suite 300, Little Rock, AR, USA, 72201

Website

https://www.inuvo.com

Inuvo Inc develops and sells information technology solutions for marketing. It develops technology to deliver content and targeted advertisements over the internet. Its products and services include ValidClick and IntentKey. The company's platforms identify and message online audiences for any product or service across devices, channels, and formats, including video, mobile, connected TV, display, social, and native. It has clients from various industries that include retail, automotive, insurance, health care, technology, telecommunications, and finance. Inuvo's revenue is derived from the placement of digital advertising throughout devices, websites, applications and browsers across social, search and programmatic advertising channels.

Executives

Barry Lowenthal	officer: President	500 PRESIDENT CLINTON AVE., SUITE 300, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Kenneth Ewell Lee	director	500 PRESIDENT CLINTON AVE., SUITE 300, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Jonathan Bond	director	C/O SITO MOBILE, LTD., 100 TOWN SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 204, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Charles D Morgan	director, 10 percent owner	3530 GILLESPIE STREET, DALLAS TX 75219
John B Pisaris	officer: General Counsel	C/O MIVA, INC., 5220 SUMMERLIN COMMONS BLVD., SUITE 500, FORT MYERS FL 33907
Barrett Don Walker Iii	officer: Chief Operating Officer	143 VARICK STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Richard K Howe	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1 INFORMATION WAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72202
Gordon J Cameron	director	8415 WEMBLEY CT., CHAGRIN FALLS OH 44023
G Kent Burnett	director	1600 CANTRELL ROAD, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Patrick Terrell	10 percent owner
Tocqueville Asset Management L.p.	other: Director-by-Deputization	40 WEST 57TH STREET, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Andrea Haldeman	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	500 PRESIDENT CLINTON AVE., SUITE 300, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Netseer Inc	10 percent owner	5104 Old Ironsides Drive, Suite 108, Santa Clara CA 95054
Wallace D Ruiz	officer: CFO
Charles L Pope	director	4902 EISENHOWER BOULEVARD, TAMPA FL 33634