What is INVO Bioscience Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
INVO Bioscience Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
INVO Bioscience (INVO Bioscience) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5582 Broadcast Court, Sarasota, FL, USA, 34240
INVO Bioscience Inc operates as a medical device company focused on the Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) marketplace that is creating simplified, lower-cost treatments for patients diagnosed with infertility. The company has developed the INVOcell device and procedure, the first Intravaginal Culture (IVC) system granted FDA clearance in the United States used for the incubation of eggs and sperm during fertilization and early embryo development. The company sells its products to physicians directly; and IVF centers, medical practices, and physicians through distributors.
Executives
| Trent D Davis |
director |
811 SW NAITO PARKWAY, SUITE 200, PORTLAND OR 97204 |
| Matthew K Szot |
director |
802 NORTH DOUTY STREET, HANFORD CA 93230 |
| Steve Shum |
director |
9025 SW HILLMAN COURT, SUITE 3126, WILSONVILLE OR 97070 |
| Andrea Goren |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
110 EAST 59TH STREET, SUITE 1901, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Barbara Ryan |
director |
22 CAVRAY ROAD, NORWALK CT 06855 |
| Michael Jos. Campbell |
director |
61 SOUTH HILLS DRIVE, BEDFORD NH 03110 |
| Rebecca Messina |
director |
5582 BROADCAST COURT, SARASOTA FL 34240 |
| Jeffrey Segal |
director |
INVO BIOSCIENCE, INC., 5582 BROADCAST COURT, SARASOTA FL 34240 |
| Awm Investment Company, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
527 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Kevin Doody |
director, officer: Medical Director |
1109 SOMERSET BLVD, COLLEYVILLE TX 76034 |
| Debra Robbins Hoopes |
officer: Acting CFO and PFO |
1 MORTON DR., SUITE 200, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22903 |
| Claude Ranoux |
10 percent owner |
8 CHESTNUT STREET, WINCHESTER MA 01890 |
| Kathleen T Karloff |
director, officer: CEO/Chairman |
109 BEACON STREET UNIT 5, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Bowdring Robert Joseph Jr |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
92 GOULD STREET, WAKEFIELD MA 01880 |
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