LCNB (LCNB) Predictability Rank

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What is LCNB Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LCNB Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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LCNB Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » LCNB Corp (NAS:LCNB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2 North Broadway, P.O. Box 59, Lebanon, OH, USA, 45036

Website

https://www.lcnb.com

LCNB Corp operates within the financial sector in the United States. As the holding company of the National Bank, it conducts the business of providing commercial and personal banking services. Its suite of banking products includes commercial and industrial loans, consumer loans, safe deposit boxes, night depositories, cashier's checks, utility bill collections, and notary public service. Besides, it provides the avenue of United States Treasury notes, the United States agency notes, certificates of deposit, and equity securities.

Executives

Eric J Meilstrup	officer: EVP/Cashier	225 DICKENS COURT, LEBANON OH 45036
Anne E Krehbiel	director	7709 CHUMANI LANE, CINCINNATI OH 45243
Michael Robert Miller	officer: Exec. Vice President	8368 SQUIRRELL RIDGE DR, CINCINNATI OH 45243
Mulligan Lawrence P Jr.	officer: Executive Vice President	218 S MAIN ST, MIDDLETOWN OH 45044
Craig Millis Johnson	director	3436 WHITFIELD AVE, CINCINNATI OH 45220
William H Kaufman	director	1017 COUNTRY CREEK DR, LEBONON OH 45036
Takeitha W Lawson	director	7313 ENGLISH GARDEN LANE, ANDERSON TOWNSHIP OH 45230
Steve P Foster	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1017 COUNTRY CREEK DR, LEBONON OH 45036
Mary E Bradford	director	4962 THUNDER RD, CLEVES OH 45002
William G Huddle	director	9394 DIN EIDYN DR, DUBLIN OH 43017
Stephen P Wilson	director, officer: President & CEO
John F Smiley	officer: Exec Vice President	7119 COVENTRY WOODS DRIVE, DUBLIN OH 43017
Michael J Johrendt	director	434 TARPON BLVD, FRIPP ISLAND SC 29920
Bradley Austin Ruppert	officer: Executive Vice President	180 LAKEVIEW DR, FRANKLIN OH 45005
Leroy F Mckay	officer: Executive Vice President	257 MECHANIC STREET, LEBANON OH 45036