What is 23andMe Holding Co Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
23andMe Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
23andMe Holding Co (23andMe Holding Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
349 Oyster Point Boulevard, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080
23andMe Holding Co is a consumer-facing healthcare technology company, primarily involved in the sale of direct-to-consumer personal genome services, or PGS, through DNA collection kits shipped via mail. The company provides users access to reports summarizing estimated genetic ancestry breakdown, phenotypic trait reports, and various health predisposition and disease carrier reports. Its segment include Consumer and Research Services and Therapeutics. The company generates maximum revenue from the Consumer and Research Services segment.
Executives
| Kathy L Hibbs |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O VIROLOGIC, 345 OYSTER POINT BLVD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| William G Richards |
officer: Head of Therapeutics Discovery |
160 KELLY AVE, HALF MOON BAY CA 94019 |
| Richard H Scheller |
director |
C/O GENENTECH INC, 1 DNA WAY MS 49, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080-4990 |
| Joseph Anthony Selsavage |
officer: Interim CFO |
490 HILL STREET, APT 5, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114 |
| Kenneth J. Hillan |
officer: Head of Therapeutics |
C/O ACHAOGEN, INC., 7000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 371, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Evan Lovell |
director, officer: Chief Financial Officer |
27 SOUTH PARK STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107 |
| Hernandez Sandra R Md |
director |
BLACKBAUD INC, 2000 DANIEL ISLAND DRIVE, CHARLESTON SC 29492 |
| Paul D Johnson |
officer: VP, General Manager-Consumer |
440 N BARRANCA AVE #3550, COVINA CA 91723 |
| Tracy Keim |
officer: See Remarks |
6107 ARROWROOT LANE, RANCHO PALOS VERDES CA 90275 |
| Steven Lemon |
officer: Vice President, Engineering |
1020 CHERRY AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125 |
| Steven J Schoch |
officer: See Remarks |
2748 BUSH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94115 |
| Frederick Mark Kohler |
officer: Vice President, People |
1004 UNION STREET, ALAMEDA CA 94501 |
| Sequoia Capital Global Growth Ii Principals Fund, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Abeec 2.0, Llc |
10 percent owner |
171 MAIN STREET, SUITE 259, LOS ALTOS CA 94022 |
| Anne Wojcicki |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O AJAX I HOLDINGS, LLC, 667 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10606 |
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