MLSS (Milestone Scientific) Predictability Rank

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What is Milestone Scientific Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Milestone Scientific Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Milestone Scientific Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Milestone Scientific Inc (AMEX:MLSS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

425 Eagle Rock Avenue, Roseland, NJ, USA, 07068

Website

https://www.milestonescientific.com

Milestone Scientific Inc is a biomedical technology company. The company is engaged in pioneering proprietary, technological systems and solutions for the medical and dental markets. The company develops, manufactures, markets, and sells the computer-controlled system for the improved and painless delivery of local anesthetics. The system is marketed in dentistry under the trademark CompuDent and in medicine under the trademark CompuMed. The Company conducts its business through two reportable segments: Dental and Medical.

Executives

Michael Mcgeehan	director	C/O MILESTONE SCIENTIFIC INC, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Leonard Osser	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO
Peter J Milligan	officer: President	1650 TYSONS BOULEVARD, SUITE 1700, MCLEAN VA 22102
Neal I Goldman	director	170 SOUTHPORT DRIVE, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Leslie Bernhard	director	C/O ADSTAR, INC., 488 S. ROYAL LANE, COPPELL TX 75019
Benedetta I Casamento	director	200 CAMPUS DRIVE, FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932
Leonard M Schiller	director
Scott L. Kahn	officer: Chief Financial Officer	425 EAGLE ROCK AVENUE, SUITE 403, ROSELAND NJ 07068
Giandomenico Trombetta	director, 10 percent owner	CORSO VENEZIA 44, MILAN L6 20121
Joseph D'agostino	officer: CFO & COO	C/O MILESTONE SCIENTIFIC INC., 220 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Jan Adriaan Haverhals	officer: President	110 WHITE ROCK ROAD, APT. 3304, VERONA NJ 07044
Brent W Johnston	officer: President	C/O MILESTONE SCIENTIFIC INC., 220 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE SUITE 102, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Edward J. Zelnick	director	C/O MILESTONE SCIENTIFIC INC., 220 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Daniel S Goldberger	officer: President and CEO	24 CARPENTER ROAD, CHESTER NY 10918
Spa Innovest	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	CORSO VENEZIA 44, MILAN L6 20121