What is Natural Alternatives International Predictability Rank?
1.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Natural Alternatives International Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Natural Alternatives International (Natural Alternatives International) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1535 Faraday Avenue, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92008
Natural Alternatives International Inc is engaged in formulating, manufacturing, and marketing nutritional supplements. It offers vitamins, minerals, herbs, and other supplements, as well as other healthcare products to customers within the United States and internationally. Its business activity is operated through Private-Label Contract Manufacturing and Patent & Trademark Licensing segment. The company derives the majority of revenue from Private-Label Contract Manufacturing which is engaged in providing manufacturing services to companies that market and distribute nutritional supplements and other healthcare products, whereas the Patent and Trademark Licensing segment includes royalty income from its license and supply agreements associated with the sale.
Executives
| Mark A Ledoux |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO/Chairman |
1185 LINDA VISTA DR, SAN MARCOS CA 92069 |
| Joe E Davis |
director |
3436 CARIBETH DR, ENCINO CA 91436 |
| Lee G Weldon |
director |
1185 LINDA VISTA DRIVE, SAN MARCAS CA 92069 |
| Alan G Dunn |
director |
1185 LINDA VISTA DR., SUITE A, SAN MARCOS X1 92078 |
| Michael E Fortin |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1185 LINDA VISTA DRIVE, SAN MARCOS CA 92078 |
| Kenneth Wolf |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
12626 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 440, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Alan J Lane |
director |
41090 AVENIDA VERDE, TEMECULA CA 92591 |
| Guru Ramanathan |
director |
C/O GNC HOLDINGS, INC., 300 SIXTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222 |
| Laura Kay Matherly |
director |
1535 FARADAY AVENUE, CARLSBAD CA 92008 |
| Edward Borg |
10 percent owner |
600 SOUTH US HIGHWAY 1, APT. 609, JUPITER FL 33477 |
| Alvin Mccurdy |
officer: V.P. of Operations |
1185 LINDA VISTA DR., SUITE A, SAN MARCOS CA 92078 |
| Carl J Terranova |
other: Member of 13(d) 10% group |
159 CHRYSTIE ST, NEW YORK NY 10002 |
| Thomas H Hansen |
10 percent owner |
|
| John Dullea |
officer: President, RHL (Subsidiary) |
12189 CAMINITO CORRIENTE, SAN DIEGO CA 92128 |
| Randell Weaver |
officer: President |
|
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