Moderna (Moderna) Predictability Rank

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What is Moderna Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Moderna Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Moderna (Moderna) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Moderna Inc (NAS:MRNA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MRNA:Peru MRNA:Mexico 0QFd:UK 0A45:UK 0QF:Germany 0QF:Germany 0QF:Germany 0QF:Germany M1RN34:Brazil MRNA:Austria

Address

200 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139

Website

https://www.modernatx.com

Moderna is a commercial-stage biotech that was founded in 2010 and had its initial public offering in December 2018. The firm's mRNA technology was rapidly validated with its COVID-19 vaccine, which was authorized in the United States in December 2020. Moderna had 39 mRNA development candidates in clinical trials as of mid-2023. Programs span a wide range of therapeutic areas, including infectious disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare genetic diseases.

Executives

Stephen Hoge	officer: President	C/O MODERNA, INC., 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
James M Mock	officer: Chief Financial Officer	940 WINTER STREET, PERKINELMER, WALTHAM MA 02451
Shannon Thyme Klinger	officer: Chief Legal Officer	200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Noubar Afeyan	director, 10 percent owner	C/O FLAGSHIP PIONEERING, INC., 55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 800E, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Arpa Garay	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	2000 GALLOPING HILL RD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Stephane Bancel	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	320 BENT STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Juan Andres	officer: See Remarks	C/O MODERNA, INC., 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Paul Burton	officer: Chief Medical Officer	200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
David W Meline	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3M COMPANY, 3M OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000
Jorge M Gomez	officer: See Remarks	C/O DENTSPLY SIRONA INC, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Paul Sagan	director	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC, 8 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Tal Zvi Zaks	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ADAPTIMMUNE THERAPEUTICS PLC, 60 JUBILEE AVE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 OX14 4RX
Lori M. Henderson	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	MOLDFLOW CORP, 430 BOSTON POST ROAD, WAYLAND MA 01778
Le Goff Corinne	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Elizabeth G Nabel	director	BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL, 75 FRANCIS ST, BOSTON MA 02115