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Moderna (Moderna) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : $-1,385.75 (As of Dec23)


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What is Moderna Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Dec23, Moderna's earnings power value is $-1,385.75. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Moderna Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Moderna's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Moderna Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

Moderna Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial - - - -1,078.18 -1,385.75

Moderna Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1,078.18 -1,038.84 -1,123.20 -1,221.08 -1,385.75

Competitive Comparison of Moderna's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Moderna's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Moderna's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Moderna's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Moderna's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Moderna Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Moderna's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 8,737
DDA 253
Operating Margin % -533.02
SGA * 25% 177
Tax Rate % -3.49
Maintenance Capex 287
Cash and Cash Equivalents 8,604
Short-Term Debt 25
Long-Term Debt 1,218
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 382

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = -533.02%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $8,737 Mil, Average Operating Margin = -533.02%, Average Adjusted SGA = 177,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 8,737 * -533.02% +177 = $-46394.920541 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = -3.49%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $-46394.920541 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = -46394.920541 * ( 1 - -3.49% ) = $-48012.711420265 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 253 * 0.5 * -3.49% = $-4.404081 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = -48012.711420265 + -4.404081 = $-48017.115501265 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Moderna's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $287 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Moderna's current cash and cash equivalent = $8,604 Mil.
Moderna's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 1,218 + 25 = $1243 Mil.
Moderna's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 382 Mil.

Moderna's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Dec23 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( -48017.115501265 - 287)/ 9%+8,604-1243 )/382
=-1,385.75

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -1385.7511344172-105.20 )/-1385.7511344172
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Moderna  (NAS:MRNA) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Moderna Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Moderna's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Moderna (Moderna) Business Description

Industry
Address
200 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139
Moderna is a commercial-stage biotech that was founded in 2010 and had its initial public offering in December 2018. The firm's mRNA technology was rapidly validated with its COVID-19 vaccine, which was authorized in the United States in December 2020. Moderna had 39 mRNA development candidates in clinical trials as of mid-2023. Programs span a wide range of therapeutic areas, including infectious disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare genetic diseases.
Executives
Stephen Hoge officer: President C/O MODERNA, INC., 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
James M Mock officer: Chief Financial Officer 940 WINTER STREET, PERKINELMER, WALTHAM MA 02451
Shannon Thyme Klinger officer: Chief Legal Officer 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Noubar Afeyan director, 10 percent owner C/O FLAGSHIP PIONEERING, INC., 55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 800E, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Arpa Garay officer: Chief Commercial Officer 2000 GALLOPING HILL RD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Stephane Bancel director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 320 BENT STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Juan Andres officer: See Remarks C/O MODERNA, INC., 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Paul Burton officer: Chief Medical Officer 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
David W Meline officer: Chief Financial Officer 3M COMPANY, 3M OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000
Jorge M Gomez officer: See Remarks C/O DENTSPLY SIRONA INC, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Paul Sagan director AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC, 8 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Tal Zvi Zaks officer: Chief Medical Officer C/O ADAPTIMMUNE THERAPEUTICS PLC, 60 JUBILEE AVE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 OX14 4RX
Lori M. Henderson officer: General Counsel and Secretary MOLDFLOW CORP, 430 BOSTON POST ROAD, WAYLAND MA 01778
Le Goff Corinne officer: Chief Commercial Officer 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Elizabeth G Nabel director BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL, 75 FRANCIS ST, BOSTON MA 02115

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