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Moderna (Moderna) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) : $-141.56 (As of Apr. 25, 2024)


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What is Moderna Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

As of today (2024-04-25), Moderna's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $-141.56.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Moderna's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Moderna is N/A.

The historical rank and industry rank for Moderna's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

MRNA's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Biotechnology industry.
Industry Median: 1.48
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.

Moderna Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Moderna's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Moderna Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

Moderna Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
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Moderna Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Moderna's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Moderna's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Moderna's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Moderna's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Moderna's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



Moderna Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.65%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Moderna's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 3 years was -83.90%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $-12.266.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Moderna's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-12.266*11.5406
=-141.56

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(-141.56-108.85)/-141.56
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Moderna  (NAS:MRNA) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Moderna Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Moderna's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Moderna (Moderna) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Moderna Inc (NAS:MRNA) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Address
200 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139
Moderna is a commercial-stage biotech that was founded in 2010 and had its initial public offering in December 2018. The firm's mRNA technology was rapidly validated with its COVID-19 vaccine, which was authorized in the United States in December 2020. Moderna had 39 mRNA development candidates in clinical trials as of mid-2023. Programs span a wide range of therapeutic areas, including infectious disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare genetic diseases.
Executives
Stephen Hoge officer: President C/O MODERNA, INC., 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
James M Mock officer: Chief Financial Officer 940 WINTER STREET, PERKINELMER, WALTHAM MA 02451
Shannon Thyme Klinger officer: Chief Legal Officer 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Noubar Afeyan director, 10 percent owner C/O FLAGSHIP PIONEERING, INC., 55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 800E, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Arpa Garay officer: Chief Commercial Officer 2000 GALLOPING HILL RD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Stephane Bancel director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 320 BENT STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Juan Andres officer: See Remarks C/O MODERNA, INC., 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Paul Burton officer: Chief Medical Officer 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
David W Meline officer: Chief Financial Officer 3M COMPANY, 3M OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000
Jorge M Gomez officer: See Remarks C/O DENTSPLY SIRONA INC, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Paul Sagan director AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC, 8 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Tal Zvi Zaks officer: Chief Medical Officer C/O ADAPTIMMUNE THERAPEUTICS PLC, 60 JUBILEE AVE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 OX14 4RX
Lori M. Henderson officer: General Counsel and Secretary MOLDFLOW CORP, 430 BOSTON POST ROAD, WAYLAND MA 01778
Le Goff Corinne officer: Chief Commercial Officer 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Elizabeth G Nabel director BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL, 75 FRANCIS ST, BOSTON MA 02115

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