OLED (Universal Display) Predictability Rank

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What is Universal Display Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Universal Display Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Universal Display Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Universal Display Corp (NAS:OLED) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OLED:Mexico 0LJE:UK UVD:Germany

Address

250 Phillips Boulevard, Ewing, NJ, USA, 08618

Website

https://www.oled.com

Universal Display Corp researches, develops, and manufactures organic light-emitting diode, or OLED, technologies for use in displays for mobile phones, tablets, televisions, wearables, personal computers, automotive interiors, and the solid-state lighting market. OLED technologies are an alternative to light-emitting diode, or LED, technologies, in the solid-state lighting market, and liquid crystal displays in the flat-panel-display market. A large majority of the firm's revenue is generated in South Korea, with the rest coming from Japan, China, the United States, and other countries across the world.

Executives

Lawrence Lacerte	director	C/O TERAGLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS CORP, 9171 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Richard C Elias	director	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Julia J Brown	officer: Chief Technical Officer
Mauro Premutico	officer: VP, Legal & GM, Licensing	C/O UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORPORATION, 375 PHILLIPS BLVD., EWING NJ 08618
Cynthia Jane Comparin	director	1000 PARK DRIVE, LAWRENCE PA 15055
Brian Millard	officer: VP/CFO	C/O UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORPORATION, 250 PHILLIPS BOULEVARD, EWING NJ 08618
Sidney D Rosenblatt	director, officer: EVP & CFO
Elizabeth H Gemmill	director
C Keith Hartley	director	14 WYNNWOOD RD, GREENWICH CT 06830-3409
Janice K Mahon	officer: VP of Tech Commercialization	375 PHILLIPS BLVD., 375 PHILLIPS BLVD., EWING NJ 08618
Celia M Joseph	director	C/O UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORPORATION, 375 PHILLIPS BOULEVARD, EWING NJ 08618
Steven V Abramson	director, officer: President and COO
Rosemarie B Greco	director	C/O PA. REAL ESTATE INV TR, 200 S BROAD ST, THE BELLVUE, PHILADELPHIA PA 19102
Sherwin I Seligsohn	director, officer: Chairman of Board and Founder	C/O UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORPORATION, 375 PHILLIPS BLVD, EWING NJ 08618
Leonard Becker	director	BALA POINTE OFFICE CENTRE, 111 PRESIDENTIAL BLVD STE 103, BALA CYNWYD PA 19004