What is Olaplex Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Olaplex Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Olaplex Holdings (Olaplex Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1187 Coast Village Road, Suite 1-520, Santa Barbara, CA, USA, 93108
Olaplex Holdings Inc is a science-enabled, technology-driven beauty company. It offers science-backed solutions that improve hair health. It identifies consumers' most relevant haircare concerns in collaboration with the community of professional hairstylists and consumers and strives to address them through its proprietary technology and innovation capabilities. It offers products through a global omnichannel platform serving the professional, specialty retail, and DTC channels. The company derives its revenue through the sale of its specialty hair care products.
Executives
| John P Bilbrey |
director |
|
| Advent International Gp, Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
800 BOYLSTON STREET SUITE 3300, BOSTON MA 02199 |
| David M Mussafer |
director |
C/O ADVENT INTERNATIONAL CORP, 75 STATE ST 29TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02104 |
| Tricia Glynn |
director |
C/O ADVENT INERNATIONAL CORPORATION, PRUDENTIAL TOWER, 800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199 |
| Michael James White |
director |
C/O ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, PRUDENTIAL TOWER, 800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199 |
| Eric Tiziani |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1187 COAST VILLAGE ROAD, SUITE 1-520, SANTA BARBARA CA 93108 |
| Kristi A Belhumeur |
officer: See Remarks |
6312 S FIDDLERS GREEN CIRCLE, SUITE 200N, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111 |
| Morfitt Martha A M |
director |
P.O. BOX 1441, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441 |
| Advent International Corp/ma |
director, 10 percent owner |
800 BOYLSTON STREET SUITE 3300, BOSTON MA 02199 |
| Advent Partners Gpe Ix-b Cayman Limited Partnership |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O ADVENT INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, PRUDENTIAL TOWER, 800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199-8069 |
| Emily White |
director |
C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7 |
| Christine Dagousset |
director |
9 W 57TH STREET, C/O CHANEL, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Tiffany Walden |
director, officer: See Remarks |
1187 COAST VILLAGE ROAD, SUITE 1-520, SANTA BARBARA CA 93108 |
| Paula Zusi |
director |
481 MYRTLE AVENUE, OCEANPORT NJ 07757 |
| Janet Gurwitch |
director |
1284 NORTH TELEGRPAH, MONROE MI 48162 |
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