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OMTK (OmniTek Engineering) Predictability Rank


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What is OmniTek Engineering Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

OmniTek Engineering Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

OmniTek Engineering Predictability Rank Related Terms

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OmniTek Engineering Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » OmniTek Engineering Corp (OTCPK:OMTK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
FLES REII TSE:6902 MBLY TSE:5108 APTV XPAR:ML ISX:ASII XKRX:012330 TSX:MG SHSE:600660 XTER:CON LKQ SHSE:601689 SZSE:002920 TSE:7259 BWA XTER:HLE TSE:5802 ALV
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1345 Specialty Dr. No. E, Vista, CA, USA, 92081
Website
https://www.omnitekcorp.com
OmniTek Engineering Corp is a developer or manufacturer of patented hotwires spark plug wires. It develops and sells proprietary diesel-to-natural gas engine conversion systems and complementary products, including new natural gas engines that utilize the company's technology. Omnitek products are available for stationary applications in the transportation industry, which includes light commercial vehicles, minibuses, heavy-duty trucks, municipal buses, as well as rail and marine applications.
Executives
Gary S Maier director 815 MORAGA DRIVE, SUITE 306, LOS ANGELES CA 90049
John M Palumbo director
Werner Funk director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO and Secretary 1345 SPECIALTY DR., #E, VISTA CA 92081
Richard L Miller officer: CFO 1333 KEYSTONE WAY, #101, VISTA CA 92081
Janice M Quigley director, officer: Vice President 15-2819 INA STREET, PAHOA HI 96778
Alicia A Rolfe officer: CFO 1333 KEYSTONE WAY, #101, VISTA CA 92081
George G Chachas director
John D Garber 10 percent owner 7506 N BROADWAY EXTN, STE 505, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116