PBYA (Upstryve) Predictability Rank

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What is Upstryve Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Upstryve Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Upstryve Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Upstryve Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » Upstryve Inc (OTCPK:PBYA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4400 Sample Road, Suite 140, Coconut Creek, FL, USA, 33073

Website

https://www.upstryve.com

Upstryve Inc is a tutoring platform dedicated to providing aspiring professionals an affordable learning experience. It provides 1-on-1 personalized online exam and licensing prep for professionals to pass their state or national exams and get their license. The company uses its proprietary matching platform to link aspiring professionals with expert tutors and instructors.

Executives

Noah Isidore Davis	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Operating Officer	1517 SAN JACINTO, HOUSTON TX 77002
Evan Levine	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1517 SAN JACINTO ST., HOUSTON TX 77002
Steven M Plumb	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Financial Officer	5300 NORTH BREASEWOOD, PMB #370, HOUSTON TX 77096-3317
Hilary Brooke Davis	10 percent owner	1517 SAN JACINTO, HOUSTON TX 77002
James Sapirstein	director	1517 SAN JACINTO, HOUSTON TX 77002
Corbin Richard Joseph Jr	director	C/O PROBILITY MEDIA CORPORATION, 1517 SAN JACINTO STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
John Thomas Norton	director	C/O PROBILITY MEDIA CORPORATION, 1517 SAN JACINTO ST., HOUSTON TX 77002
Heinz Josef Lenz	director	2002 GLEN ALLEN LANE, ALTADENA CA 91001
David J Moss	director	C/O PEGASI ENERGY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 218 N. BROADWAY, SUITE 204, TYLER TX 75702
Richard P Rainey	officer: President,CEO,CFO,Treas.,Secr.	AVAX TECHNOLOGIES INC, 9200 INDIANA CREEK PARKWAY, OVERLAND KS 66210
Irwin Zalcberg	director, 10 percent owner	52118 LAKE PARK DRIVE, GRAND BEACH MI 49117
Roldis Estevez	10 percent owner, other: Former Officer & Director	6800 SW 40TH STREET, #213, MIAMI FL 33155
Christopher Ellerbeck	10 percent owner	6800 SW 40TH STREET, #213, MIAMI FL 33155
Jayesh Mehta	director, 10 percent owner	474 N LAKE SHORE DR APT 5906, CHICAGO IL 60611