PEGA (Pegasystems) Predictability Rank

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What is Pegasystems Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pegasystems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pegasystems Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Pegasystems Inc (NAS:PEGA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0KGS:UK PEA:Germany PEA:Germany

Address

One Main Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142

Website

https://www.pega.com

Founded in 1983, Pegasystems provides a suite of solutions for customer engagement and business process management. The company's key offering is the Pega Infinity platform, which combines business process management, or BPM, with customer relationship management, or CRM, applications. The company focuses on enterprise-size customers, specifically within the financial, insurance, and healthcare fields.

Executives

Leon Trefler	officer: SVP, Global Customer Success	1 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Kenneth Stillwell	officer: CFO, SVP	ONE ROGERS STREET, CAMBRDIGE MA 02142
Efstathios A Kouninis	officer: VP of Finance & CAO	26 GRANDVIEW DRIVE, DOVER NH 03820
Larry Weber	director	C/O MIVA, INC., 5220 SUMMERLIN COMMONS BLVD., SUITE 500, FORT MYERS FL 33907
Rifat Kerim Akgonul	officer: Chief Product Officer	ONE ROGERS STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Richard H Jones	director	C/O PEGASYSTEMS INC, 101 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Sharon T Rowlands	director	195 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10007
John Gerard Higgins	officer: Chief, Client &Partner Success	C/O PEGASYSTEMS INC., 1 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Michael R Pyle	officer: Senior VP, Engineering	C/O PEGASYSTEMS INC, 101 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIGE MA 02142
Christopher Lafond	director	56 TOP GALLANT RD, STAMFORD CT 06904
Dianne Ledingham	director	ONE ROGERS STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Douglas I Kra	officer: SVP, Global Customer Success	101 MAIN STREET, C/O PEGASYSTEMS INC., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Hayden Stafford	officer: President	ONE ROGERS STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Peter Gyenes	director	50 WASHINGTON ST, WESBOROUGH MA 012581
Alan Trefler	10 percent owner, officer: C.E.O. & Chairman	C/O PEGASYSTEMS INC, 101 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142