PENG (Penguin Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Penguin Solutions Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Penguin Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Penguin Solutions Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Penguin Solutions Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Penguin Solutions Inc (NAS:PENG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

850:Germany

Address

1390 McCarthy Boulevard, Milpitas, CA, USA, 94560

Website

https://www.penguinsolutions.com

Penguin Solutions Inc is an end-to-end technology company engaged in Intelligent Platform Solutions, Integrated Memory, and Optimized LED business. Its product include Servers, software, OCP HPC & AI system, Racks and Edge. Servers include AMD-based Serves, Intel-based Servers, etc. Software products include Scyld ClusterWare, Scyld Cloud Central, etc. OCP HPC & AI Systems includes OCP Servers & Storage and etc.

Executives

Joseph Gates Clark	officer: President, LED Solutions	C/O SMART MODULAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 39870 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
Jack A Pacheco	officer: EVP, COO, Pres, Mem Solutions	SMART MODULAR TECHNOLOGIES (WWH), INC., 4211 STARBOARD DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94538
Mark Adams	director, officer: President and CEO	834 TERRACE DRIVE, LOS ALTOS CA 94024
Penny Herscher	director	1001 RIDDER PARK DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Ken Rizvi	officer: SVP and CFO	39870 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560-4809
David C Laurello	officer: President - IPS	C/O SMART GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC., 39870 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
Anne Kuykendall	officer: SVP and Chief Legal Officer	C/O SMART MODULAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 39870 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
Sandeep Nayyar	director	C/O SMART GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC., 39870 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
Mary G Puma	director	AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES INC., 108 CHERRY HILL DRIVE, BEVERLY MA 01915
Thierry Pellegrino	officer: SVP, Pres. Spec. Computing	C/O SMART MODULAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 39870 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
Mark D Papermaster	director	ONE AMD PLACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94088
Claude Demby	officer: SVP, Pres. Cree LED	C/O SMART MODULAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 39870 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
Ajay Shah	director	2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Mukesh Patel	director	C/O SMART GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC., 39870 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
Silver Lake (offshore) Aiv Gp Iii, Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE PARTNERS, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025