PEO (Adams Natural Resources Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Adams Natural Resources Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Adams Natural Resources Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Adams Natural Resources Fund Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc (NYSE:PEO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 East Pratt Street, Suite 1300, Baltimore, MD, USA, 21202

Website

https://www.adamsfunds.com

Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc is a non-diversified U.S. equity fund that invests in liquid energy and other natural resources stocks. The Fund's investment objectives are preservation of capital, reasonable income, and opportunity for capital gain. A majority of its assets are invested in petroleum or natural resources industries or industries connected to them. It has broad flexibility to invest in stocks of varying capitalizations and predominantly invests in stocks found in the S&P 500 Energy and S&P 500 Materials sectors.

Executives

Gregory W. Buckley	officer: Executive Vice President	500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Mary Christine Gay	director	3600 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Jane Musser Nelson	director	100 FEDERAL STREET, 31ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Brian Stephen Hook	officer: Treasurer	ADAMS FUNDS, 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Kathleen T Mcgahran	director	ADAMS FUNDS, 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Janis F. Kerns	officer: Gen Counsel,Corp Sec, CCO	ADAMS FUNDS, 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Lauriann C Kloppenburg	director	ADAMS FUNDS, 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Frederic A Escherich	director	ADAMS FUNDS, 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Phillip Goldstein	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Response	60 HERITAGE DRIVE, PLEASANTVILLE NY 10570
Andrew Dakos	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Response	250 PEHLE AVE., SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Investors, Llp Bulldog	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Response	PARK 80 WEST - PLAZA TWO, 250 PEHLE AVE. SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Frederick D. Disanto	10 percent owner	6060 PARKLAND, SUITE 200, CLEVELAND OH 44124
Ancora Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner, other: Member of a Group	6060 PARKLAND BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, CLEVELAND OH 44124
James M Chadwick	10 percent owner	C/O IMPERIAL HOLDINGS, INC., 701 PARK OF COMMERCE BLVD., #301, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Kenneth James Dale	director	ADAMS FUNDS, 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202