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PEO (Adams Natural Resources Fund) Predictability Rank


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What is Adams Natural Resources Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Adams Natural Resources Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Adams Natural Resources Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Adams Natural Resources Fund's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Adams Natural Resources Fund Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc (NYSE:PEO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
GAMI GHY BLW BGB FTHY WIW MMU GAIN DSU EIM BLK KKR BX TSX:BAM OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN APO LSE:III AMP ARES
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
500 East Pratt Street, Suite 1300, Baltimore, MD, USA, 21202
Website
https://www.adamsfunds.com
Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc is a non-diversified U.S. equity fund that invests in liquid energy and other natural resources stocks. The Fund's investment objectives are preservation of capital, reasonable income, and opportunity for capital gain. A majority of its assets are invested in petroleum or natural resources industries or industries connected to them. It has broad flexibility to invest in stocks of varying capitalizations and predominantly invests in stocks found in the S&P 500 Energy and S&P 500 Materials sectors.
Executives
Gregory W. Buckley officer: Executive Vice President 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Mary Christine Gay director 3600 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Jane Musser Nelson director 100 FEDERAL STREET, 31ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Brian Stephen Hook officer: Treasurer ADAMS FUNDS, 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Kathleen T Mcgahran director ADAMS FUNDS, 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Janis F. Kerns officer: Gen Counsel,Corp Sec, CCO ADAMS FUNDS, 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Lauriann C Kloppenburg director ADAMS FUNDS, 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Frederic A Escherich director ADAMS FUNDS, 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Phillip Goldstein 10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Response 60 HERITAGE DRIVE, PLEASANTVILLE NY 10570
Andrew Dakos 10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Response 250 PEHLE AVE., SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Investors, Llp Bulldog 10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Response PARK 80 WEST - PLAZA TWO, 250 PEHLE AVE. SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Frederick D. Disanto 10 percent owner 6060 PARKLAND, SUITE 200, CLEVELAND OH 44124
Ancora Advisors, Llc 10 percent owner, other: Member of a Group 6060 PARKLAND BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, CLEVELAND OH 44124
James M Chadwick 10 percent owner C/O IMPERIAL HOLDINGS, INC., 701 PARK OF COMMERCE BLVD., #301, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Kenneth James Dale director ADAMS FUNDS, 500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1300, BALTIMORE MD 21202