RMESF (Red Metal Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Red Metal Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Red Metal Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Red Metal Resources Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Red Metal Resources Ltd (OTCPK:RMESF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RMES:Canada

Address

1130 West Pender Street, Suite 820, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6E 4A4

Website

https://www.redmetalresources.com

Red Metal Resources Ltd is involved in acquiring and exploring mineral properties in Chile. The company's interest in exploration and evaluation assets consisted of three active copper-gold projects on two properties, namely the Farellon and Perth Projects both located on the Carrizal Property, and the Mateo Project located on the Mateo Property.

Executives

Richard Jeffs	10 percent owner	FLAT 7, 6 ENNISMORE GARDENS, LONDON X0 SW7 1NL
Caitlin Jeffs	director	195 PARK AVENUE, THUNDER BAY A6 P7B 1B9
Jeffrey Cocks	director	118 8TH AVE. NW, CALGARY A0 T2M 0A4
Michael Thompson	director	195 PARK AVENUE, THUNDER BAY A6 P7B 1B9
Mcfarlane Cody Michael	director	PUNTA NOGALES 1324, HOUSE 19, SANTIAGO F3 000000
Joao Dacosta	officer: Chief Financial Officer	#810 - 789 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1H2
Susan Jeffs	10 percent owner	4 MONTPELIER STREET, SUITE 521, LONDON X0 SW7 1EE
Robert Andjelic	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 69, MILLARVILLE A0 1KO
Laboa Holdings Inc.	10 percent owner	SUITE 1-A, #5, CALLE EUSEBIO A. MORALES, EL CANGREJO, PANAMA CITY R1 00000
Kevin Mitchell	10 percent owner	ALONSO DE ERCILLA #733, VALLENAR F3 00000
Cicco John Di	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, President, and CFO	10168 LAWSON DRIVE, RICHMOND A1 V7E 5M3