Rand Worldwide (Rand Worldwide) Predictability Rank

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What is Rand Worldwide Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rand Worldwide Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rand Worldwide (Rand Worldwide) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Rand Worldwide Inc (OTCPK:RWWI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

11201 Dolfield Boulevard, Suite 112, Owings Mills, Baltimore, MD, USA, 21117

Website

https://www.rand.com

Rand Worldwide Inc provides design, engineering, and facilities management technology solutions and professional services to engineering and design companies internationally. It provides value-added services, such as training, technical support, and other consulting and professional services to businesses, government agencies, and educational institutions. The firm operates in five divisions: IMAGINiT Technologies, Rand 3D, Rand Simulation, Facilities Management, and ASCENT - Center for Technical Knowledge. The company's product sale revenue comes from the sale of perpetual as well as term-based software licenses, hardware, and training materials.

Executives

Lawrence Rychlak	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	14 PEBBLE LANE TIMONIUM MD 21093
Philip B Livingston	director	1241 EAST MAIN ST, STAMFORD CT 06902
David Michael Schneider	director	36 ROSEWOOD DRIVE EASTON CT 06612
Dulude Marc J L	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	55 WILLIAM ST STE 240 WELLESLEY MA 02481
2006 L P Ampersand	other: Former 10% owner	55 WILLIAM ST SUITE 240 WELLESLEY MA 02481
Amp-06 Mc Llc	other: Former 10% owner	C/O AMPERSAND VENTURES 55 WILLIAM STREET, SUITE 240 WELLESLEY MA 02481
Amp-06 Management Co Limited Partnership	other: Former 10% owner	C/O AMPERSAND VENTURES 55 WILLIAM STREET, SUITE 240 WELLESLEY MA 02481
Rwwi Holdings Llc	other: Former 10% owner	C/O AMPERSAND VENTURES 55 WILLIAM STREET, SUITE 240 WELLESLEY MA 02481
Manu Parpia	director	GODREJ BHAVAN, 4A HOME STREET FORT, BOMBAY K7 400 001
Peter H Kamin	director, 10 percent owner	2720 DONALD ROSS ROAD, #311, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33410
Robert Francis Heeg	officer: Executive Vice President	10022 JAMESTOWN DRIVE NORTH ROYAL OH 44133
George M Davis	director
Eugene J Fischer	director	245 LANING DRIVE WOODSIDE CA 94062
3k Limited Partnership	other: See Explanation of Responses	ONE AVERY STREET 17B BOSTON MA 02111
Peter H. Kamin Childrens Trust	other: See Explanation of Responses	ONE AVERY STREET 17B BOSTON MA 02111

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