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Skinvisible (Skinvisible) Predictability Rank


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What is Skinvisible Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Skinvisible Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Skinvisible Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Skinvisible's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Skinvisible (Skinvisible) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Skinvisible Inc (OTCPK:SKVI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
RCKY SHOO DBI MCRAA VRA CROX WEYS DECK BIRK ONON PG XPAR:OR LSE:ULVR CL BOM:500696 EL KMB LSE:RKT KVUE XTER:BEI
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6320 South Sandhill Road, Suite 10, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89120
Website
https://www.skinvisible.com
Skinvisible Inc is a pharmaceutical research and development company that has developed and patented a polymer delivery system, Invisicare and formulated over forty topical skin products, which it out-licenses globally. Invisicare is a patented polymer delivery system that enhances the delivery of active ingredients for topically applied skin care products. Its patented technology has a formula and process for combining active ingredients with a delivery system that extends the duration of time the product remains on the skin and active.
Executives
St James David M director 3395 S. JONES BLVD., #169, LAS VEGAS NV 89146
Doreen Mcmorran 10 percent owner 6320 S. SANDHILL RD UNIT 10, LAS VEGAS NV 89120
Brian Piwek director 9014 GLENEAGLE DRIVE, BLAINE WA 98230
E Greg Mccartney director #307-15338 18TH AVENUE, SURREY BC A1 V4A 1W8
Jost Steinbruchel director 7, RUE DES BATTOIRS, POBOX #214, 1211 GENEVA 4 V8 000000
Robert F Lutz director, 10 percent owner
Terry Howlett director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & Chief Exec.Officer 6320 S. SANDHILL ROAD, SUITE #10, LAS VEGAS NV 89120
Skinvisible Inc director, 10 percent owner, officer: President 6320 S SANDHILL ROAD, SUITE 10, LAS VEGAS NV 89120
Lutz Family Trust 10 percent owner 8322 WEST TONTO LANE, PEORIA AZ 85382