SOR (Source Capital) Predictability Rank

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What is Source Capital Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Source Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Source Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Source Capital Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Source Capital Inc (NYSE:SOR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

235 West Galena Street, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53212

Website

https://www.fpa.com

Source Capital Inc is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The investment objective of the company is to seek maximum total return for Common shareholders from both capital appreciation and investment income to the extent consistent with the protection of invested capital.

Executives

Sandra Brown	director	11601 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Korey Bauer	officer: Vice President	2220 E. ROUTE 66, SUITE 226, GLENDORA CA 91740
Rita Dam	officer: Treasurer	2220 EAST ROUTE 66, SUITE 226, GLENDORA CA 91740
Lyna Phan	officer: Assistant Treasurer	2220 EAST ROUTE 66, SUITE 226, GLENDORA CA 91740
Amy Centurioni	officer: Assistant Secretary	2220 E. ROUTE 66, SUITE 226, GLENDORA CA 91740
Max Banhazl	officer: Vice President	2220 E. ROUTE 66, SUITE 226, GLENDORA CA 91740
Diane J Drake	officer: Secretary	2220 E. ROUTE 66, SUITE 226, GLENDORA CA 91740
Martin Dziura	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	309 WOODRIDGE LANE, MEDIA PA 19063
John Zader	director	11601 WISHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Maureen A Quill	director	11601 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Mark L. Lipson	director	100 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 1200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Brian A. Selmo	other: Officer of inv co's inv adv	11400 W. OLYMPIC BLVD., STE. 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90064
Ryan A. Leggio	other: Officer of inv co's inv adv	11601 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Robert F Goldrich	director	LEON LEVY FOUNDATION, ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020
Thomas H Atteberry	other: partner of inv co's inv adv	11400 W OLYMPIC BLVD, STE 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90064