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SRH Total Return Fund, (SRH Total Return Fund,) Predictability Rank


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What is SRH Total Return Fund, Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


SRH Total Return Fund, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

SRH Total Return Fund, Predictability Rank Related Terms

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SRH Total Return Fund, (SRH Total Return Fund,) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1700 Broadway, Suite 1850, Denver, CO, USA, 80290
SRH Total Return Fund, Inc. is a non-diversified closed-end management investment company. The company's investment objective is to seek total return. Its fund utilizes a bottom-up, value-driven investment process to identify securities of good quality businesses trading below estimated intrinsic value.
Executives
Thomas Jack Moore director 1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 1850, DENVER CO 80290
Jonathan Albro Vickery other: Officer of Advisor 1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 1230, DENVER CO 80290
Advisors Paralel other: Investment Adviser 1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 1850, DENVER CO 80290
Jill Kerschen officer: Treasurer 1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 1850, DENVER CO 80290
Stephen C Miller director, officer: President 2344 SPRUCE STREET, SUITE A, BOULDER CO 80302
Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co 10 percent owner 1295 STATE STREET, SPRINGFIELD MA 01111
Guardian Life Insurance Co Of America 10 percent owner 10 HUDSON YARDS, NY NY 10001
Sun Life Financial Inc 10 percent owner SUN LIFE ASSURANCE CO OF CANADA, ONE YORK STREET, TORONTO A6 M5J 0B6
Sun Life Assurance Co Of Canada 10 percent owner ONE YORK STREET, TORONTO A6 M5J 0B6
Ernest Horejsi Trust No 1b 10 percent owner C/O ALASKA TRUST COMPANY, 1029 WEST 3RD AVENUE, SUITE 400, ANCHORAGE AK 99501
Stewart R. Horejsi Trust No. 2 10 percent owner C/O ALASKA TRUST COMPANY, 1029 WEST 3RD AVENUE, SUITE 400, ANCHORAGE AK 99501
Mildred B. Horejsi Trust 10 percent owner C/O ALASKA TRUST COMPANY, 1029 WEST 3RD AVENUE, SUITE 400, ANCHORAGE AK 99501
Susan L Ciciora Trust 10 percent owner C/O ALASKA TRUST COMPANY, 1029 WEST 3RD AVENUE, SUITE 400, ANCHORAGE AK 99501
Stewart West Indies Trust 10 percent owner C/O ALASKA TRUST COMPANY, 1029 WEST 3RD AVENUE, SUITE 400, ANCHORAGE AK 99501
Lola Brown Trust 1b 10 percent owner C/O ALASKA TRUST COMPANY, 1029 WEST 3RD AVENUE, SUITE 400, ANCHORAGE AK 99501

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