TDS (Telephone and Data Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is Telephone and Data Systems Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Telephone and Data Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Telephone and Data Systems Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Telephone and Data Systems Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » Telephone and Data Systems Inc (NYSE:TDS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TDSpV.PFD:USA TDSpU.PFD:USA

Address

30 North LaSalle Street, Suite 4000, Chicago, IL, USA, 60602

Website

https://www.tdsinc.com

Telephone and Data Systems Inc is a diversified telecommunications operator that provides mobile, telephone, and broadband services. The company's segments include UScellular and TDS Telecom. It generates maximum revenue from the UScellular segment.

Executives

Clarence A Davis	director	ONEIDA LTD., 163-181 KENWOOD AVENUE, ONEIDA NY 13421
Vicki L Villacrez	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	30 N. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 4000, CHICAGO IL 60602
Dirk S Woessner	director	30 N. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 4000, CHICAGO IL 60602
Kurt B Thaus	officer: Senior VP - CIO	30 N LASALLE STREET STE 4000, CHICAGO IL 60602
Prudence E Carlson	director	30 N LASALLE STREET SUITE 4000, CHICAGO IL 60602
Joseph R Hanley	officer: VP Technology Planning Service	535 JUNCTION ROAD, MADISON WI 53717
Gary L Sugarman	director	C/O MACHTEN, INC., 1516 BARLOW STREET, SUITE D, TRAVERSE CITY MI 49686
Laurent C Therivel	director, officer: President of a Subsidiary	8410 W. BRYN MAWR STREET, CHICAGO IL 60631
Mizuho Securities Usa Llc	other: See Remarks	1271 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, FLOORS - 2,3,4,18,19, NEW YORK NY 10020
Wade Oosterman	director	C/O INGRAM MICRO INC., 1600 E. ST. ANDREW PLACE, SANTA ANA CA 92705
Anita J Kroll	officer: VP, Controller & CAO	30 N. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 4000, CHICAGO IL 60602
Scott H Williamson	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O TDS INC, 30 N. LASALLE ST #4000, CHICAGO IL 60602
Mitchell H Saranow	director	C/O METZLER GROUP INC, 520 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 500, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Kenneth R Meyers	director, officer: Executive Vice President & CFO
James W Butman	officer: President & CEO of subsidiary	30 N. LASALLE STREET, STE. 4000, CHICAGO IL 60602