Instil Bio (Instil Bio) Predictability Rank

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What is Instil Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Instil Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Instil Bio (Instil Bio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Instil Bio Inc (NAS:TIL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3963 Maple Avenue, Suite 350, Dallas, TX, USA, 75219

Website

https://www.instilbio.com

Instil Bio Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing an innovative cell therapy pipeline of autologous tumor infiltrating lymphocyte, or TIL, therapies for the treatment of patients with cancer. It is also engaged in developing a novel class of genetically engineered TIL therapies using our Co-Stimulatory Antigen Receptor, or CoStAR, platform. The company's lead product candidate, ITIL-168, is an autologous TIL therapy that it is initially developing for the treatment of PD-1-inhibitor relapsed or refractory advanced melanoma.

Executives

Timothy L. Moore	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O KITE PHARMA, INC., 2225 COLORADO AVE., SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Sumita Ray	officer: Chief Legal and Admin Officer	C/O PHARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Nimish P Shah	director	7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10018
Jack Nielsen	director, 10 percent owner	C/O AKEBIA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 1100, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Vivo Capital Fund Ix, L.p.	10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Mcgaughy R Kent Jr	director	500 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 250, DALLAS TX 75201
Curative Ventures V Llc	10 percent owner	3963 MAPLE AVENUE, SUITE 390, DALLAS TX 75219
Bronson Crouch	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman	C/O INSTIL BIO, INC., 3963 MAPLE AVENUE, SUITE 350, DALLAS TX 75219
Vivo Capital Ix, Llc	10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Sandeep Laumas	officer: CFO and CBO	8480 HONEYCUTT RD, SUITE 200, RALEIGH NC 27615
Neil W Gibson	director	C/O REGULUS THERAPEUTICS INC., 3545 JOHN HOPKINS COURT SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Gwendolyn Binder	director	C/O CABALETTA BIO, INC., 2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 600, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Zachary Roberts	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O INSTIL BIO, INC., 3963 MAPLE AVENUE, SUITE 350, DALLAS TX 75219
George Matcham	director	C/O INSTIL BIO, INC., 3963 MAPLE AVENUE, SUITE 350, DALLAS TX 75219
Vijay Chiruvolu	officer: Chief Technical Officer	C/O TURNSTONE BIOLOGICS CORP., 9310 ATHENA CIRCLE, SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037