TKO (TKO Group Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is TKO Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TKO Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

TKO Group Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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TKO Group Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » TKO Group Holdings Inc (NYSE:TKO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

200 fifth Avenue, 7th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10010

Website

https://www.tkogrp.com

TKO Group Holdings Inc is a sports and sports entertainment company that operates combat sport and sports entertainment companies. It owns and manages valuable sports and entertainment intellectual property. The company distributes content and monetizes its intellectual property through four principal activities: Media Rights and Content, Live Events, Sponsorship, and Consumer Products Licensing. The company has two reportable segments, UFC and WWE. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the UFC segment. The UFC segment revenue consists of media rights fees associated with the distribution of its programming content, ticket sales, and site fees associated with the business's global live events, sponsorship, and consumer products licensing agreements of UFC-branded products.

Executives

Sonya E Medina	director	P.O. BOX 99900, LOUISVILLE KY 40269
Jonathan Kraft	director	C/O ENDEAVOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 9601 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, 3RD FLOOR, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Silver Lake West Holdco, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Patrick Whitesell	10 percent owner	11601 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 1600, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Ariel Emanuel	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SOURCE INTERLINK COMPANIES, INC., 27500 RIVERVIEW CENTER BLVD, SUITE 400, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134
Shane Kapral	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ENDEAVOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 9601 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, 3RD FLOOR, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Andrew M Schleimer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SIX FLAGS, INC., 11501 NORTHEAST EXPRESSWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73131
Seth D Krauss	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC., 222 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Mark S Shapiro	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O RED ZONE LLC, 21300 REDSKIN PARK DRIVE, ASHBURN VA 20147
Nick Khan	director	1241 EAST MAIN STREET, STAMFORD CT 06902
Vincent K Mcmahon	director, 10 percent owner	C/O WORLD WRESTLING ENTERTAINMENT INC, 1241 EAST MAIN STREET, STAMFORD CT 06902
Steven R Koonin	director	625 WESTPORT PARKWAY, GRAPEVINE TX 76051
Carrie Wheeler	director	500 VOLVO PARKWAY, CHESAPEAKE VA 23320
Bynoe Peter C B	director	203 NORTH LASALLE STREET, SUITE 1900, CHICAGO IL 60601
Egon Durban	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025