Universal Microelectronics Co (TPE:2413) Predictability Rank


TPE:2413 Universal Microelectronics Co Ltd TPE:2413
53 GF Score
Price NT$50.60
GF Value NT$18.95
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 6 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Universal Microelectronics Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Universal Microelectronics Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

TPE:2413
53GF Score
Universal Microelectronics Co Ltd TPE:2413
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Universal Microelectronics Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Universal Microelectronics Co (TPE:2413) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Universal Microelectronics Co stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of NT$50.60 is trading 167% above its estimated GF Value™ of NT$18.95. GuruFocus considers Universal Microelectronics Co to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for TPE:2413:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: NT$18.95 vs. price of NT$50.60 (167% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 53/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TPE:2413 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Universal Microelectronics Co Business Description

Address No. 3, 27th Road, Taichung Industrial Park, Nantun District, Taichung City, TWN, 408
Universal Microelectronics Co Ltd is engaged in the manufacturing and selling of computer peripherals, connectors, wires, and other parts. Its operating segments include the Magnetic Component & Power Product Department, which is responsible for the production of electronic components and generates maximum revenue; the Information and Communication Product Department, which is responsible for the production of OEM and ODM information and communication products; the Optical Communication Product Office, which is responsible for the production of optical communication equipment products; and Others, which mainly involves the trading of raw materials and acting as a purchasing agent for commodities. It generates maximum revenue from the United States.
53GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TPE:2413

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

NT$50.60
Price
NT$18.95
GF Value