What is Interactive Strength Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Interactive Strength Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Interactive Strength (Interactive Strength) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1005 Congress Avenue, Suite 925 , Texas, Austin, TX, USA, 78701
Interactive Strength Inc provides an integrated home fitness platform that allows its customers to participate in interactive wellness and strength-based training sessions. Its health coaching services encompass guidance and coaching on nutrition, recovery, sleep, and other health and lifestyle categories. It generates revenue from sales of its connected fitness products, membership revenue, and personal training revenue.
Executives
| Bradley James Wickens |
10 percent owner |
PUDLICOTE HOUSE, PUDLICOTE LANE, CHIPPING NORTON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 OX7 3HX |
| Touw Kirsten Bartok |
director |
125 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| Investments 1 Block.one |
10 percent owner |
C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104 |
| Lock.one |
10 percent owner |
C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, S. CHURCH ST., GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104 |
| Brendan Francis Blumer |
10 percent owner |
C/O BLOCK.ONE, SUITE 4290, 48 MARKET STREET, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9006 |
| Trent Alexander Ward |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
942 N. LAUREL AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90046 |
| Michael Madigan |
officer: Principal Financial Officer |
370 HOURGLASS LANE, BALDWINSVILLE NY 13027 |
| Deepak Manu Mulchandani |
director |
27660 SKYLARK LANE, SANTA CLARA CA 91350 |
| Stuart Bryan |
officer: Principal Accounting Officer |
22900 ALLEN COURT, SAINT CLAIR SHORES MI 48080 |
| Weaver Aaron Ngoc Dung |
director |
99 OAKLEY STREET, LONDON X0 SW3 5NR |
| Kokuei Yuan |
10 percent owner |
SUITE 4290, 48 MARKET STREET, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9006 |
| Andrew Bliss |
10 percent owner |
SUITE 4290, 48 MARKET STREET, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9006 |
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