Stantec (TSX:STN) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1994. Start your Free Trial

What is Stantec Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Stantec Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Stantec Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Stantec's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Stantec Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Stantec Inc (TSX:STN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

STN:USA S3A:Germany

Address

10220 - 103 Avenue NW, Suite 400, Edmonton, AB, CAN, T5J 0K4

Website

http://www.stantec.com

Stantec Inc is a sustainable engineering, architecture, and environmental consulting company. The company is geographically diversified in three regional operating units namely Canada, United States and Global, offering similar services across all regions. The company offers services in various sectors across the project life cycle through five business operating units infrastructure, water, buildings, environmental services, and energy and resources. The company provides professional services in all phases of the project life cycle: planning, design, construction administration, commissioning, maintenance, decommissioning, and remediation.

Executives

Asifa Samji	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6), Senior Officer
Shelley Ann Marie Brown	Director
Steve Marvin Fleck	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6), Senior Officer
Robert Gomes	Director
Leonardo De Oliveira Castro	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Michael Aloysius Kennedy	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Stuart Lerner	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6), Senior Officer
John David Take	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6), Senior Officer
Ryan Roberts	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Jeffrey Philip Stone	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Bjorn Morisbak	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Paul Jeremy David Alpern	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6), Senior Officer
Valentino Dimanno	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Robert Harold Seager	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Theresa Jang	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6), Senior Officer