VIA Pharmaceuticals (VIA Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1998. Start your Free Trial

What is VIA Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

VIA Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

VIA Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of VIA Pharmaceuticals's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

VIA Pharmaceuticals (VIA Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » VIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (GREY:VIAP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

750 Battery Street, Suite 330, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94111

Website

http://www.baycitycapital.com

VIA Pharmaceuticals Inc is a development stage biotechnology company focuses on the development of small-molecule drugs to treat cardiovascular and metabolic diseases.

Executives

Fred B Craves	director	750 BATTERY ST, STE 600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Bay City Capital Fund Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	750 BATTERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Bay City Capital Management Iv Llc	10 percent owner	750 BATTERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Bay City Capital Fund Iv Co Invesment Fund Lp	10 percent owner	750 BATTERY ST STE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Bay City Capital Llc	10 percent owner	750 BATTERY STREET STE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Douglas B Given	director	C/O NEORX CORP, 410 WEST HARRISON ST, SEATTLE WA 98119
Karen Steil Wright	officer: V.P. ? Finance, Controller	750 BATTERY STREET, SUITE 330, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Lawrence Kenneth Cohen	director, officer: CEO and President	750 BATTERY STREET, SUITE 330 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Richard L Anderson	director	14031 216TH WAY NE, WOODINVILLE WA 98072
Mark Bagnall	director	3876 BAY CENTER PLACE, HAYWARD CA 94545
Rebecca Taub	officer: SVP, Research & Development	750 BATTERY STREET, SUITE 330, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Adeoye Y Olukotun	officer: Chief Medical Officer	3621 SOUTH STATE ST, 695 KMS PL, ANN ARBOR MI 48108
Deerfield Special Situations Fund International Ltd	10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group	BISON COURT, ROAD TOWN, TORTOLA D8 -
Deerfield Special Situations Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group	780 3RD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
James E Flynn	10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group	780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017

VIA Pharmaceuticals (VIA Pharmaceuticals) Headlines

From GuruFocus

VIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Reports Operating Results (10-Q)

By gurufocus • 08-12-2009

VIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Reports Operating Results (10-Q)

By gurufocus 10qk • 11-12-2009