vTv Therapeutics (vTv Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is vTv Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

vTv Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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vTv Therapeutics (vTv Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » vTv Therapeutics Inc (NAS:VTVT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5VT0:Germany

Address

3980 Premier Drive, Suite 310, High Point, NC, USA, 27265

Website

https://www.vtvtherapeutics.com

vTv Therapeutics Inc is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of orally administered treatments for diabetes. The company lead program is TTP399, an orally administered, small molecule, liver-selective glucokinase activator (GKA) that is a potential adjunctive therapy to insulin for the treatment of type 1 diabetes.

Executives

Steven L. Tuch	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VTV THERAPEUTICS INC., 3980 PREMIER DRIVE, HIGH POINT NC 27265
John A Fry	director	C/O DELAWARE INVESTMENTS, 2005 MARKET ST. 34TH FL., PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Jonathan Isaacsohn	director	C/O VTV THERAPEUTICS INC., 3980 PREMIER DRIVE, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Paul J Sekhri	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O VEEVA SYSTEMS INC., 4637 CHABOT DRIVE, SUITE 210, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Fahed Al-marzooqi	director	AL KHATEM TOWER, ABU DHABI GLOBAL MARKET, ABU DHABI C0 00000
Keith R. Harris	director	C/O MEIRAGTX - US, 430 EAST 29TH STREET, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Hersh Kozlov	director	WOLF BLOCK SCHORR & SOLIS, 1940 RTE 70 E, CHERRY HILL NJ 08003
Howard L. Weiner	director	4170 MENDENHALL OAKS PKWY, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Chandresh Harjivan	director	C/O VTV THERAPEUTICS INC., 3980 PREMIER DRIVE, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Al-nahyan Tahnoon Bin Zayed S.	10 percent owner	OFFICE 2458, FLOOR 24, AL-SILA TOWER, ABU DHABI C0 00000
G42 Investments Ai Holdings Rsc Ltd.	director, 10 percent owner	OFFICE 801, FLOOR 8, AL KHATEM TOWER, ABU DHABI C0 00000
Barry K. Brown	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O VTV THERAPEUTICS INC., 3980 PREMIER DRIVE, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Rich S. Nelson	director, officer: Acting Chief Executive Officer	C/O VTV THERAPEUTICS INC., 3980 PREMIER DRIVE, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Ronald O Perelman	10 percent owner	35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021
Deepa Prasad	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O VTV THERAPEUTICS INC., 3980 PREMIER DRIVE, SUITE 310, HIGH POINT NC 27265