V2X (VVX) Predictability Rank

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What is V2X Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

V2X Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

V2X Predictability Rank Related Terms

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V2X Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » V2X Inc (NYSE:VVX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

CDRE EVEX RDW PL EH LUNR DCO HERXF NPK ATRO GE RTX BA XPAR:AIR XPAR:SAF LMT TDG LSE:RR. GD NOC

Traded in Other Exchanges

1V1:Germany

Address

1875 Campus Commons Drive, Suite 305, McLean, VA, USA, 20191

Website

https://www.gov2x.com

V2X Inc is a U.S.-based company that provides services to the U.S. government. It operates as one segment and offers facility and logistics services and information technology mission support and engineering and digital integration services. The information technology and network communications capabilities consist of communications systems operations and maintenance, management and service support, systems installation and activation, system-of-systems engineering and software development, and mission support for the department of defense. The facility and logistics service include airfield management, ammunition management, civil engineering, communications, emergency services, life support activities, public works, security, transportation operations, and others.

Executives

Dino M Cusumano	director	C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Aipcf Vi Vertex Aerospace Funding Lp	10 percent owner	C/O AIP 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Shawn Mural	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	15197 CARVER COURT, WATERFORD VA 20197
Eric M Pillmore	director	C/O TYCO INTERNATIONAL (US) INC, 9 WEST 57TH ST 43RD FL., NEW YORK NY 10019
Abbas Elegba	director	7901 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, SUITE 700, MCLEAN VA 22102
Josephine F. Bjornson	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	7901 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, SUITE 700, MCLEAN VA 22102
William Boyd Noon	officer: CVP, Chief Accounting Officer	150 FIELD DRIVE, SUITE 250, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Michael James Smith	officer: See Remarks	C/O VECTRUS, INC., 2424 GARDEN OF THE GODS ROAD, SUITE 300, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80919
Kevin T Boyle	officer: SVP, CLO & General Counsel	2424 GARDEN OF THE GODS ROAD, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80919
Aipcf Vi, Llc	10 percent owner	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Lightship Capital Llc	10 percent owner	330 MADISON AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Stephen L Waechter	director	1100 N GLEBE ROAD, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Joel M. Rotroff	director	C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Neil Snyder	director	C/O GARDNER DENVER HOLDINGS, INC., 222 EAST ERIE STREET, SUITE 500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
American Industrial Partners Capital Fund Vi, L.p.	10 percent owner	330 MADISON AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017