VYNE (VYNE Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is VYNE Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

VYNE Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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VYNE Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » VYNE Therapeutics Inc (NAS:VYNE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

685 Route 202/206 North, Suite 301, Bridgewater, NJ, USA, 08807

Website

https://www.vynetherapeutics.com

VYNE Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing proprietary, innovative and differentiated therapies for the treatment of immuno-inflammatory conditions. Its advanced product candidate is FMX114, which is being evaluated for the potential treatment of mild-to-moderate AD (atopic dermatitis). The company is also in the pre-clinical stages of developing products containing BET (Bromodomain and Extra-Terminal Domain) inhibitor compounds. Its products include AMZEEQ, ZILXI, and FCD105.

Executives

Patrick G Lepore	director	17-17 ROUTE 208 N, FAIRLAWN NJ 07410
Mutya Harsch	officer: Chief Legal Officer and GC	C/O FOAMIX PHARMACEUTICALS LTD., 2 HOLZMAN STREET, WEIZMANN SCIENCE PARK, REHOVOT L3 76704
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Tyler Zeronda	officer: Interim CFO	C/O VYNE THERAPEUTICS, 520 U.S. HIGHWAY 22, SUITE 204, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Andrew Saik	officer: Chief Financial Officer	640 LEE ROAD, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Rex Bright	director	5641 LAKE VISTA DRIVE, BONSALL CA 92003
Iain Stuart	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O FOAMIX PHARMACEUTICALS LTD., 2 HOLZMAN STREET, WEIZMANN SCIENCE PARK, REHOVOT L3 76704
David Domzalski	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O FOAMIX PHARMACEUTICALS LTD., 2 HOLZMAN STREET, WEIZMANN SCIENCE PARK, REHOVOT L3 76704
Matthew T. Wiley	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O FOAMIX PHARMACEUTICALS LTD., 2 HOLTZMAN ST, WEIZMANN SCIENCE PARK, REHOVOT L3 7670402
Anthony D Bruno	director	C/O WARNER CHILCOTT HOLDINGS CO., LTD., 100 ENTERPRISE DRIVE, ROCKAWAY NJ 07866
Stanley Hirsch	director	C/O FOAMIX PHARMACEUTICALS LTD., 2 HOLZMAN STREET, WEIZMANN SCIENCE PARK, REHOVOT L3 76704
Ilan Hadar	officer: CFO and Country Manager	C/O FOAMIX PHARMACEUTICALS LTD., 2 HOLZMAN STREET, WEIZMANN SCIENCE PARK, REHOVOT L3 76704
Sharon Surrey Barbari	director	280 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Perceptive Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Joseph Edelman	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003