XAGE (Longevity Health Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Longevity Health Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Longevity Health Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Longevity Health Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Longevity Health Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Longevity Health Holdings Inc (NAS:XAGE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2403 Sidney Street, Suite 300, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15203

Website

https://www.carmellcorp.com

Longevity Health Holdings Inc is a United States based bio-aesthetics company focused on developing, manufacturing, and marketing cosmetic skincare and haircare products. The company has two cosmetic product lines, Carmell Secretome and Elevai Exosomes, that support skin and hair health.

Executives

Richard A Upton	director	12 MIDDLE STREET, AMHERST NH 03031
Kathryn Gregory	director	305 THAYER POND ROAD, WILTON CT 06897
Patrick A Sturgeon	officer: CFO and Secretary	600 LEXINGTON AVENUE 33 FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
David W Anderson	director	519 LYNMERE ROAD, BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Rajiv Shukla	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	EMERALD VIEW SUITE 400, 2054 VISTA PARKWAY, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33411
Randolph W Hubbell	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O CARMELL THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION, 2403 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 300, PITTSBURGH PA 15203
William R Newlin	director	C/O CARMELL THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION, 2403 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 300, PITTSBURGH PA 15203
Steven Bariahtaris	director	C/O CARMELL THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION, 2403 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 300, PITTSBURGH PA 15203
Jaime Garza	director	C/O CARMELL THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION, 2403 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 300, PITTSBURGH PA 15203
Janet Vargo	officer: VP Clinical Services	C/O CARMELL THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION, 2403 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 300, PITTSBURGH PA 15203
Donna Godward	officer: Chief Quality Officer	C/O CARMELL THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION, 2403 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 300, PITTSBURGH PA 15203
James C Hart	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O CARMELL THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION, 2403 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 300, PITTSBURGH PA 15203
William Woodward	director	ANTHEM VENTURE PARTNERS, 225 ARIZONA AVENUE, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Darlene T Deremer	director	200 CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 1850, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33701
Ahac Sponsor Iii Llc	10 percent owner	1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036