Lightning eMotors (Lightning eMotors) Predictability Rank

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What is Lightning eMotors Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lightning eMotors Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lightning eMotors (Lightning eMotors) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery » Lightning eMotors Inc (OTCPK:ZEVY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

815 14th Street South West, Suite A100, Loveland, CO, USA, 80537

Website

https://www.lightningemotors.com

Lightning eMotors Inc is engaged in designing and manufacturing zero-emission commercial trucks and buses and charging infrastructure solutions for fleets, large enterprises, original equipment manufacturers, and governments. Its product offerings range from cargo vans, transit and shuttle buses, school buses, specialty work trucks, ambulances, and electric powertrains for school buses, transit buses, and motor coaches. Its product solutions help its customers reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, lower operating costs and improve energy efficiency.

Executives

Rosella Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	TRAFALGAR COURT, 3RD FLOOR, WEST WING, LES BANQUES, ST PETER PORT Y7 GY1 2JA
David Agatston	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O LIGHTNING EMOTORS, INC., 815 14TH STREET SW, SUITE A100, LOVELAND CO 80537
Wanda Jackson-davis	director	C/O LIGHTNING EMOTORS, INC., 815 14TH STREET SW, SUITE A100, LOVELAND CO 80537
Shashi Seth	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	3080 SOUTH CT, PALO ALTO CA 94306
Jack Kenneth P. Jr.	director	815 14TH STREET SW, SUITE A100, LOVELAND CO 80537
Robert Fenwick-smith	director	C/O LIGHTNING EMOTORS, INC., 815 14TH STREET SW, SUITE A100, LOVELAND CO 80537
Bruce Coventry	director	C/O LIGHTNING EMOTORS, INC., 815 14TH STREET SW, SUITE A100, LOVELAND CO 80537
Timothy Reeser	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O LIGHTNING EMOTORS, INC., 815 14TH STREET SW, SUITE A100, LOVELAND CO 80537
Teresa Covington	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AEROVIRONMENT, INC., 181 W. HUNTINGTON DR., SUITE 202, MONROVIA CA 91016
Raluca Dinu	director	C/O GIGCAPITAL2, INC., 2479 E. BAYSHORE RD., SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Diana D Tremblay	director	2111 NORTH MOLTER ROAD, LIBERTY LAKE WA 99019
Thaddeus Senko	director	C/O AUTOLIV, INC., KLARABERGSVIADUKTEN 70, SECTION B7, STOCKHOLM V7 SE-11164
Andrea Betti-berutto	other: former director	C/O GIGCAPITAL3, INC., 1731 EMBARCADERO RD., SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Peter S Wang	other: former director	GIGCAPITAL, INC., 3000 EL CAMINO REAL, BLDG 4, SUITE 232, PALO ALTO CA 94306
John J Mikulsky	other: former director	C/O KALEYRA, INC., 1731 EMBARCADERO ROAD, SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94303