GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Zevra Therapeutics Inc (NAS:ZVRA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Zevra Therapeutics (Zevra Therapeutics) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2015. Start your Free Trial

What is Zevra Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Zevra Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Zevra Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Zevra Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Zevra Therapeutics (Zevra Therapeutics) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1180 Celebration Boulevard, Suite 103, Celebration, FL, USA, 34747
Zevra Therapeutics Inc is a rare disease company melding science, data and patient needs to create transformational therapies for diseases with limited or no treatment options. The firm's data-driven clinical, regulatory, and commercialization strategies overcome complex drug development challenges to bring much-needed therapies to patients. Its product candidate comprises Arimoclomol, orally delivered investigational product candidate for the treatment of Niemann-Pick type C (NPC). KP1077 is Zevra's lead clinical candidate being developed as a treatment for idiopathic hypersomnia (IH) and narcolepsy.
Executives
Neil F. Mcfarlane director, officer: President and CEO C/O RETROPHIN, INC., 12255 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
R. Laduane Clifton officer: VP Fin & Corp Controller C/O KEMPHARM, INC., 1170 CELEBRATION BLVD., #103, CELEBRATION FL 34747
Thomas Anderson director 215 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Joshua Schafer officer: CCO & EVP, Bus. Development SHUTTLE PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDINGS, INC., ONE RESEARCH COURT, SUITE 450, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
John B Bode director C/O TRIBUNE PUBLISHING COMPANY, 202 W. FIRST STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90012
Watton Corey Michael director 22045 KAREN STREET, ELKHORN NE 68022
Douglas W Calder director 324 S. HYDE PARK AVENUE, SUITE 350, TAMPA FL 33606
Wendy L Dixon director
Tamara A Seymour director C/O SIGNAL GENETICS, INC., 5740 FLEET STREET, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Timothy J. Sangiovanni officer: VP, Corporate Controller C/O KEMPHARM, INC., 2500 CROSSPARK RD, STE E-126, CORALVILLE IA 52241
Matthew R Plooster director 2656 CROSSPARK ROAD, SUITE 100, CORALVILLE IA 52241
David S Tierney director C/O ABLE LABORATORIES, INC., 6 HOLLYWOOD COURT, CN 1013, SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Richard W Pascoe director C/O SEELOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 300 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Christopher Posner director C/O CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 4 STAMFORD PLAZA, 107 ELM STREET, 9TH FL, STAMFORD CT 06902
Travis C Mickle director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO 2656 CROSSPARK ROAD, SUITE 100, CORALVILLE IA 52241