AEYE (AudioEye) Predictability Rank

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What is AudioEye Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AudioEye Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AudioEye Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » AudioEye Inc (NAS:AEYE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5210 E. Williams Circle, Suite 750, Tucson, AZ, USA, 85711

Website

https://www.audioeye.com

AudioEye Inc is a software solution provider delivering immediate ADA and WCAG accessibility compliance at scale. Through patented technology, subject matter expertise and proprietary processes, it is eradicating all barriers to digital accessibility, helping creators get accessible and supporting them with ongoing advisory and automated upkeep. Trusted by the ADP, Tommy Hilfiger, A360 Media, Samsung, Landry's and others. It helps everyone identify and resolve issues of accessibility and enhance user experiences, automating digital accessibility for the widest audiences.

Executives

Jamil A. Tahir	director	5210 E. WILLIAMS CIRCLE, SUITE 750, TUCSON AZ 85711
Carr Bettis	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Exec Chrmn/Chrmn of the Board	9070 S. RITA ROAD, SUITE 1450, TUCSON AZ 85747
David Moradi	10 percent owner	379 WEST BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10021
Kelly Georgevich	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5210 E. WILLIAMS CIRCLE, SUITE 750, TUCSON AZ 85711
Katherine E. Fleming	director	ONE MIFFLIN PLACE, 119 MT. AUBURN STREET, SUITE 400, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Christopher Hundley	officer: President	C/O AUDIOEYE,INC., 5210 E. WILLIAMS CIRCLE, SUITE 750, TUSCON AZ 85711
Dominic Peter Varacalli	officer: President	930 NW 12TH AVE, UNIT 228, PORTLAND OR 97209
Marc Lehmann	director	5210 E. WILLIAMS CIRCLE, SUITE 750, TUCSON AZ 85711
Anthony L Coelho	director	5210 E. WILLIAMS CIRCLE, SUITE 750, TUCSON AZ 85711
Sero Capital Llc	10 percent owner	1333 2ND STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Alexandre Zyngier	director	5700 W. PLANO PARKWAY, SUITE 3600, PLANO TX 75093
Lonny Sternberg	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O AUDIOEYE, INC., 5210 E. WILLIAMS CIRCLE, SUITE 750, TUCSON AZ 85711
Heath Thompson	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O AUDIOEYE, INC., 5210 E. WILLIAMS CIRCLE, SUITE 750, TUCSON AZ 85711
Sean D. Bradley	officer: President and CSO	9070 S. RITA ROAD, SUITE 1450, TUCSON AZ 85747
Sachin Barot	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AUDIOEYE, INC., 5210 E. WILLIAMS CIRCLE, SUITE 750, TUCSON AZ 85711