C3.ai (AI) Predictability Rank

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What is C3.ai Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

C3.ai Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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C3.ai (AI) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » C3.ai Inc (NYSE:AI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AI1:Mexico 0A5W:UK 724:Germany 724:Germany 724:Germany 724:Germany

Address

1400 Seaport Boulevard, Redwood City, CA, USA, 94063

Website

https://www.c3.ai

C3.ai Inc is an enterprise artificial intelligence company. The company provides software-as-a-service applications that enable customers to rapidly develop, deploy, and operate large-scale Enterprise AI applications across any infrastructure. It provides solutions under three divisions namely, The C3 AI Suite, is a comprehensive application development and runtime environment that is designed to allow customers to rapidly design, develop, and deploy Enterprise AI applications of any type; C3 AI Applications, include a large and growing family of industry-specific and application-specific turnkey AI solutions that can be immediately installed and deployed; and C3.ai Ex Machina, analytics for applying data science to every-day business decisions.

Executives

Juho Parkkinen	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O C3.AI, INC., 1400 SEAPORT BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Edward Y Abbo	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O C3.AI, INC., 1400 SEAPORT BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Guy Wanger	officer: SVP & Chief Admin Officer	C/O C3.AI, INC., 1400 SEAPORT BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Richard C Levin	director	C/O C3.AI, INC., 1400 SEAPORT BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Ward Jr Stephen M	director	C/O CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP, PO BOX 14662, READING PA 19612
Kr Sridhar	director	1299 ORLEANS DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Shankar Sastry	director	C/O C3.AI, INC., 1300 SEAPORT BLVD., SUITE 500, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Houman Behzadi	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O C3.AI, INC., 1400 SEAPORT BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Lisa Ann Davis	director	2555 TELEGRAPH RD, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Adeel Manzoor	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4655 GREAT AMERICA PARKWAY, SUITE 300, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Thomas M Siebel	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1400 SEAPORT BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
David Barter	officer: Senior VP and CFO	C/O MODEL N, INC., 1600 SEAPORT BLVD., SUITE 400, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Patricia A House	director	C/O C3.AI, INC., 1400 SEAPORT BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Bruce A Cleveland	officer: Senior VP and CMO	C/O C3.AI, INC., 1300 SEAPORT BLVD, SUITE 500, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Lutton Richard J. Jr.	officer: Senior VP and General Counsel	C/O C3.AI, INC., 1300 SEAPORT BLVD, SUITE 500, REDWOOD CITY CA 94603