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Biohaven (NYSE:BHVN) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Biohaven Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Biohaven Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Biohaven's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Biohaven (NYSE:BHVN) Business Description

Biohaven logo
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Address
Website
Biohaven Ltd is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with a portfolio of innovative therapies to improve the lives of patients with debilitating neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases, including rare disorders. Biohaven's Neuroinnovation portfolio includes FDA-approved Nurtec ODT (rimegepant) for the acute and preventive treatment of migraine (EMA-approved as Vydura (rimegepant) for the acute treatment of migraine with or without aura, and prophylaxis of episodic migraine.
Executives
Robert J Hugin director C/O THE MEDICINES CO 8 CAMPUS DR PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Michael Thomas Heffernan director C/O CORNERSTONE THERAPEUTICS INC. 1255 CRESCENT GREEN DRIVE, SUITE 250 CARY NC 27518
Julia P Gregory director 8800 TECHNOLOGY FOREST PLACE THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Gregory Bailey director 4 A CHESHAM STREET LONDON X0 SW1X8DT
Kimberly Gentile officer: SVP, Clinical Operations C/O BIOHAVEN PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDING COMP 234 CHURCH STREET NEW HAVEN CT 06510
John W Childs director 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE SUITE 2900 BOSTON MA 02199
Vlad Coric director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O BIOHAVEN PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDING COMP 234 CHURCH STREET NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Irina Antonijevic director 215 CHURCH STREET NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Matthew Buten officer: Chief Financial Officer 215 CHURCH STREET NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Kishan Mehta director 540 WEST 49TH STREET UNIT# PH1N NEW YORK NY 10019
Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Co Ltd. 10 percent owner 215 CHURCH STREET NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Bruce Car officer: Chief Scientific Officer AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 88 SIDNEY STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02139

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