CHD (Church & Dwight Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Church & Dwight Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Church & Dwight Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Church & Dwight Co Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Church & Dwight Co Inc (NYSE:CHD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CHD:Mexico 1CHD:Italy 0R13:UK CXU:Germany CXU:Germany CHDC34:Brazil CHD:Austria

Address

500 Charles Ewing Boulevard, Ewing, NJ, USA, 08628

Website

https://www.churchdwight.com

Church & Dwight is the leading global producer of baking soda. Its portfolio extends beyond its legacy category to include laundry products, cat litter, oral care, deodorant, and nasal care, all sold under the Arm & Hammer brand. Its mix also includes Batiste, OxiClean, Vitafusion, Hero, and TheraBreath, which together with Arm & Hammer constitute around 70% of its annual sales and profits. Most recently, the firm announced the addition of Touchland, and its hand santizer business, to its fold. Even as it works to grow the reach of its products, Church & Dwight still derives around 80% of its sales from its home market in the US.

Executives

Carlen Hooker	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Richard A Dierker	officer: E.V.P. Finance & C.F.O.	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Michael Read	officer: EVP, International	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Penry W Price	director	469 N. HARRISON STREET, PRINCETON NJ 08530
Rene Hemsey	officer: E.V.P. HR	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
De Maynadier Patrick D	officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary
Matthew Farrell	officer: Vice President Finance and CFO
Ravichandra Krishnamurty Saligram	director	C/O NEWELL BRANDS INC., 6655 PEACHTREE DUNWOODY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30328
Bradley C Irwin	director	469 NORTH HARRISON STREET, PRINCETON NJ 08543
Rick Spann	officer: E.V.P. Global Operations	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Joseph James Longo	officer: VP, Controller and CAO	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Arthur B Winkleblack	director
Barry A. Bruno	officer: EVP, International	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Robert K Shearer	director	400 NORTH ELM STREET, GREENSBORO NC 27403
Brian D Buchert	officer: EVP of Strategy, M&A, and BP	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628