Dow (DOW) Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dow Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dow (DOW) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Dow Inc (NYSE:DOW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1DOW:Italy 2OY:Germany 2OY:Germany 2OY:Germany 2OY:Germany D1OW34:Brazil DOW:Austria

Address

2211 H.H. Dow Way, Midland, MI, USA, 48674

Website

https://www.dow.com

Dow Chemical is a diversified global chemicals producer, formed in 2019 as a result of the DowDuPont merger and subsequent separations. The firm is a leading producer of several chemicals, including polyethylene, ethylene oxide, and silicone rubber. Its products have numerous applications in both consumer and industrial end markets.

Executives

Richard K Davis	director	800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Jeffrey L. Tate	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Debra L. Dial	director	208 S. AKARD, 29TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75202
Lisa Bryant	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Howard I Ungerleider	officer: President and CFO	2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Jerri Devard	director	120 E 87TH STREET, #P6A, NEW YORK NY 10128
Jacqueline C. Hinman	director	9191 SOUTH JAMAICA STREET, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
James R Fitterling	officer: Chief Executive Officer	2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Moreno Mejia Luis Alberto	director	C/O DOW INC., 2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
John Maurice Sampson	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O DOW INC., 2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Peter Holicki	officer: Senior Vice President	2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Banister Gaurdie E. Jr.	director	2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Diego Donoso	officer: President, Pkg & Spec Plastics	2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Jack Broodo	officer: President, Feedstocks & Energy	2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48640
Jane Palmieri	officer: President, Ind Interm & Infras	2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674