Edgewell Personal Care Co (Edgewell Personal Care Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Edgewell Personal Care Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Edgewell Personal Care Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Edgewell Personal Care Co (Edgewell Personal Care Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Edgewell Personal Care Co (NYSE:EPC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EGZ:Germany

Address

6 Research Drive, Shelton, CT, USA, 06484

Website

https://www.edgewell.com

Edgewell Personal Care Co is a personal-care company. The operating segments of the company include Wet Shave, Sun and Skin Care and Feminine Care. Some of the brands offered by the company include Edge, Skintimate, Personna, Schick, Carefree, Playtex, Banana Boat and Hawaiian Tropic. It derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

John N Hill	officer: VP, Global Human Resources	C/O EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE COMPANY, 6 RESEARCH DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Robert Andrew Schmidt	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O NEWELL BRANDS INC., 6655 PEACHTREE DUNWOODY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30328
Latanya Langley	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE COMPANY, 6 RESEARCH DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Priscilla Kasenchak	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1111 MARCUS AVENUE, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042
Anne-sophie Gaget	officer: Chief Growth & Innovation Ofcr	C/O EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE FRANCE, 1 RUE FRANCOIS JACOB, RUEIL MALMAISON I0 92500
Carla C Hendra	director	885 WEST END AVE. 12B, NEW YORK NY 10025
Swan Sit	director	95 JACKSON STREET, NEWTON MA 02459
Nicholas Fj Powell	officer: President, International	C/O EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE COMPANY, 6 RESEARCH DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Paul Hibbert	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	C/O EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE COMPANY, 6 RESEARCH DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Eric F O'toole	officer: President, North America	C/O EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE COMPANY, 6 RESEARCH DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
R David Hoover	director	C/O EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE COMPANY, 1350 TIMBERLAKE MANOR PARKWAY, CHESTERFIELD MO 63017
James C Johnson	director	1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, P. O. BOX 66149, MC-1370, ST. LOUIS MO 63166-6149
Marisa Iasenza	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE COMPANY, 6 RESEARCH DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Rod R Little	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1 HSN DRIVE, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33729
Daniel J Heinrich	director	CLOROX CO, 1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612