Edwards Lifesciences (Edwards Lifesciences) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Edwards Lifesciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Edwards Lifesciences (Edwards Lifesciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Edwards Lifesciences Corp (NYSE:EW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EW:Mexico 1EW:Italy EWL:Germany EWL:Germany EWL:Germany E1WL34:Brazil EWLS:Austria

Address

One Edwards Way, Irvine, CA, USA, 92614

Website

https://www.edwards.com

Spun off from Baxter International in 2000, Edwards Lifesciences designs, manufactures, and markets a range of medical devices and equipment for advanced stages of structural heart disease. It has established itself as a leader across key products, including surgical tissue heart valves, transcatheter valve technologies, surgical clips, catheters, and monitoring systems used to measure a patient's heart function during surgery. The firm derives about 55% of its total sales from outside the U.S.

Executives

Bobo Donald E Jr	officer: CVP,Strategy/Corp Development	C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES, ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Michael A Mussallem	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP, ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Scott B. Ullem	officer: CVP, CFO	C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION, ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Daveen Chopra	officer: CVP, Surgical Structural Heart	C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION, ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92618
Larry L Wood	officer: CVP, THV Replacement	C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION, ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Catherine M. Szyman	officer: CVP, Critical Care	C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION, ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Wayne Markowitz	officer: GM & SVP, Surgical	ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Heisz Leslie Stone	director	C/O PUBLIC STORAGE, 701 WESTERN AVENUE, GLENDALE CA 91201
Jean-luc M Lemercier	officer: CVP, EMEA, Canada, Latin Amer	C/O ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Sellers Robert W.a.	officer: VP, Corp. Controller (Principa	ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Bernard J Zovighian	officer: CVP, Surgical Heart Valves	C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION, ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Huimin Wang	officer: CVP, Japan & Intercontinental	C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES, ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Martha H. Marsh	director	9769 WEXFORD CIRCLE, GRANITE BAY CA 95746
Kieran Gallahue	director	PO BOX 684369, PARK CITY UT 84068
Nicholas J Valeriani	director	C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION, ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614