Fate Therapeutics (Fate Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2013. Start your Free Trial

What is Fate Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fate Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Fate Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Fate Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Fate Therapeutics (Fate Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Fate Therapeutics Inc (NAS:FATE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

F6T:Germany F6T:Germany

Address

12278 Scripps Summit Drive, San Diego, CA, USA, 92131

Website

https://www.fatetherapeutics.com

Fate Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company based in the United States. It is engaged in the development of programmed cellular immunotherapies for cancer and immune disorders. The company's cell therapy pipeline is comprised of NK- and T-cell immuno-oncology programs, including off-the-shelf engineered product candidates derived from clonal master iPSC lines, and immuno-regulatory programs, including product candidates to prevent life-threatening complications in patients.

Executives

J Scott Wolchko	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Dulac Edward J Iii	officer: Chief Financial Officer	FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT STE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Bahram Valamehr	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, STE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Cindy Tahl	officer: See Remarks	C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, STE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Redmile Group, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE D3-300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Yuan Xu	director	C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 601 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Brian T. Powl	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 12278 SCRIPPS SUMMIT DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Yu-waye Chu	officer: See Remarks	FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT STE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
John Mendlein	director
Mark Plavsic	officer: Chief Technical Officer	C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT STE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Shefali Agarwal	director	C/O EPIZYME, INC., 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Karin Jooss	director	C/O GRITSTONE ONCOLOGY, INC., 5858 HORTON STREET, SUITE 210, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Timothy P Coughlin	director	339 NORTH GRANADOS AVE, SOLANA BEACH CA 92075
Robert Hershberg	director	3005 FIRST AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98121
Robert S Epstein	director