First Commonwealth Financial (First Commonwealth Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is First Commonwealth Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Commonwealth Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Commonwealth Financial (First Commonwealth Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Commonwealth Financial Corp (NYSE:FCF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FCF:Germany

Address

601 Philadelphia Street, Indiana, PA, USA, 15701

Website

https://www.fcbanking.com

First Commonwealth Financial Corp functions in the financial services sector in the United States. Through its subsidiary, it offers a range of consumer and commercial banking services such as personal checking accounts, interest-earning checking accounts, savings accounts, insured money market accounts, investment certificates, fixed & variable rate certificates of deposit, and various kinds of loans. It also provides trust and wealth management services and offers insurance products through the Bank. The company earns the majority of its revenue through net interest income.

Executives

Carrie L Riggle	officer: EVP/Human Resources	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Ray T Charley	director	22 N 6TH ST, INDIANA PA 15701
Patricia A. Husic	director	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Matthew C Tomb	officer: EVP/Chief Risk Officer	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Brian G Karrip	officer: EVP/Chief Credit Officer	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Norman J Montgomery	officer: EVP/Business Integration	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
James R Reske	officer: EVP/Chief Financial Officer	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Leonard V Lombardi	officer: EVP/Chief Audit Executive	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
T Michael Price	director, officer: President & CEO	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Robert J Ventura	director	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Gary R Claus	director	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Jane Grebenc	director, officer: EVP/Chief Revenue Officer	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Stephen A Wolfe	director	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Aradhna M Oliphant	director	601 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
David W Greenfield	director	601 PHILADELHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701