First Trust Specialty Fnc & Fncl Oppor (First Trust Specialty Fnc & Fncl Oppor) Predictability Rank

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What is First Trust Specialty Fnc & Fncl Oppor Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Trust Specialty Fnc & Fncl Oppor Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Trust Specialty Fnc & Fncl Oppor (First Trust Specialty Fnc & Fncl Oppor) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » First Trust Specialty Fnc & Fncl Oppor (NYSE:FGB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

120 East Liberty Drive, Suite 400, Wheaton, IL, USA, 60187

Website

https://www.ftportfolios.com

First Trust Specialty Fnc & Fncl Oppor is a United States-based closed-end management investment company. The Fund's primary investment objective is to seek a high level of current income. It seeks a positive total return as a secondary objective. The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objectives by investing at least 80% of its Managed Assets in a portfolio of securities of specialty finance and other financial companies.

Executives

Bronwyn Wright	director	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Thomas R Kadlec	director	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP, 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
M Keefe Denise	director	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Kelly Catherine Dehler	other: Officer - Investment Advisor	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Scott Michael Friske	other: Officer - Investment Advisor	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Steven Patrick Farmer	other: Officer-Invest. Sub-Advisor	50 S. LASALLE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60603
Anne Kochevar	other: Officer - Invest. Sub-Advisor
Shane Shannon	officer: Assistant Secretary	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Donald Swade	officer: Assistant Treasurer	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Katherine L Urevig	officer: Assistant Treasurer	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Rosanne Gatta	officer: Assistant Secretary	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY STREET, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Erin E Klassman	officer: Assistant Secretary	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, WHEATON IL 60187
Joseph J Hanzlik	other: Officer-Investment Sub-Adviser	CONFLUENCE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, 349 MARSHALL AVENUE, SUITE 302, ST. LOUIS MO 63119
Patricia A Dahl	other: Officer-Investment Sub-Adviser	CONFLUENCE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, 349 MARSHALL AVENUE, SUITE 302, ST. LOUIS MO 63119
Confluence Investment Management Llc	other: Investment Sub-Adviser	20 ALLEN AVENUE, SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63119