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Comfort Systems USA (Comfort Systems USA) Predictability Rank


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What is Comfort Systems USA Predictability Rank?

4 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Comfort Systems USA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Comfort Systems USA Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Comfort Systems USA (Comfort Systems USA) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
675 Bering Drive, Suite 400, Houston, TX, USA, 77057
Comfort Systems USA Inc provides comprehensive mechanical contracting services, including heating, ventilation, & air conditioning, or HVAC; plumbing; piping & controls; construction; and other electrical components. Projects are mainly for commercial, industrial, & institutional buildings, & tend to be geared toward HVAC. Revenue is roughly split between installation services for newly constructed facilities & maintenance services for existing buildings. The company installs & repairs products and systems throughout the United States. It operates in two segments, Mechanical services & Electrical services, the majority is from the Mechanical services segment.
Executives
Skidmore Constance Ellen director 675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Rhoman J Hardy director 2828 N. HARWOOD ST., SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
William J Sandbrook director C/O U.S. CONCRETE, INC., 331 N. MAIN STREET, EULESS TX 76039
Vance W Tang director C/O KONE INC., 4225 NAPERVILLE ROAD, SUITE 400, LISLE IL 60532
Laura Finley Howell officer: VP, General Counsel, Secretary 675 BERING DRIVE SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Franklin Myers director C/O CAMERON INT'L CORPORATION, 1333 WEST LOOP S. #1700, HOUSTON TX 77027
Brian E. Lane officer: President / CEO COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC., 675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Julie Shaeff officer: Chief Accounting Officer COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC., 675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Cindy L. Wallis-lage director C/O COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC., 675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
William Iii George officer: Chief Financial Officer 675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Herman E Bulls director JONES LANG LASALLE, 1801 K STREET NW SUITE 1000, WASHINGTON DC 20006
T Mckenna Trent officer: VP, General Counsel & Secy C/O COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC., 675 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77057
Darcy Anderson director C/O PEROT SYSTEMS CORP, 2300 WEST PLANO PKWY, PLANO TX 75075
Pablo G. Mercado, director 920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77024
Alan Krusi director AECOM, 555 SOUTH FLOWER ST. 37TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071

Comfort Systems USA (Comfort Systems USA) Headlines

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Comfort Systems USA Increases Quarterly Dividend

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