Glacier Bancorp (Glacier Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Glacier Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Glacier Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Glacier Bancorp (Glacier Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Glacier Bancorp Inc (NYSE:GBCI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GLC:Germany

Address

49 Commons Loop, Kalispell, MT, USA, 59901-2679

Website

https://www.glacierbancorp.com

Glacier Bancorp Inc is a regional bank holding company providing commercial banking services to scores of communities through its wholly-owned bank subsidiary, Glacier Bank. The bank operates a multitude of banking offices in Montana, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. The bank's wide range of products and services include deposit, loans, and mortgage origination services, among others. The bank primarily serves individuals, small- to medium-sized businesses, community organizations, and public entities. Glacier's strategy emphasizes both internal growth and growth through selective acquisitions. A majority of the bank's loan portfolio is in commercial real estate, while a majority of its net revenue is net interest income.

Executives

Don J. Chery	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT/CAO	49 COMMONS LOOP, KALISPELL MT 59901
Randall M Chesler	officer: Glacier Bank President	49 COMMONS LOOP, KALISPELL MT 59901
Craig A Langel	director	3819 STEPHENS AVENUE, MISSOULA MT 59801
Ron J Copher	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT/CFO
Jesus Thomas Espinoza	director	49 COMMONS LOOP, KALISPELL MT 59901
David C Boyles	director	49 COMMONS LOOP, KALISPELL MT 59901
Kristen Lee Heck	director	49 COMMONS LOOP, KALISPELL MT 59901
Michael Burke Hormaechea	director	49 COMMONS LOOP, KALISPELL MT 59901
Cashell Robert A. Jr	director	1505 SOUTH PAVILION CENTER DRIVE, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
Sherry Leigh Cladouhos	director	49 COMMONS LOOP, KALISPELL MT 59901
John W Murdoch	director	217 RIDGE TRAIL, BOZEMAN MT 59715
James M English	director	P.O. BOX 2875, HAYDEN ID 83835
Michael J Blodnick	director, officer: PRESIDENT/CEO
George R Sutton	director	49 COMMONS LOOP, KALISPELL MT 59901
Douglas J Mcbride	director	49 COMMONS LOOP, KALISPELL MT 59901