Gilead Sciences (Gilead Sciences) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gilead Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gilead Sciences (Gilead Sciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Gilead Sciences Inc (NAS:GILD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GILD:Mexico GILD:Italy GISd:UK 0QYQ:UK GIS:Germany GIS:Germany GIS:Germany GIS:Germany GILD34:Brazil GILD:Austria GILD:Argentina

Address

333 Lakeside Drive, Foster, CA, USA, 94404

Website

https://www.gilead.com

Gilead Sciences develops and markets therapies to treat life-threatening infectious diseases, with the core of its portfolio focused on HIV and hepatitis B and C. The acquisitions of Corus Pharma, Myogen, CV Therapeutics, Arresto Biosciences, and Calistoga have broadened this focus to include pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Gilead's acquisition of Pharmasset brought rights to hepatitis C drug Sovaldi, which is also part of combination drug Harvoni, and the Kite, Forty Seven, and Immunomedics acquisitions boost Gilead's exposure to cell therapy and noncell therapy in oncology.

Executives

Andrew D Dickinson	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Johanna Mercier	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Merdad Parsey	officer: Chief Medical Officer	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Sandra Patterson	officer: SVP, Controllership	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Diane E. Wilfong	officer: SVP, Controller & CAO	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Deborah H Telman	officer: EVP, Corporate Affairs & GC	2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Brett A Pletcher	officer: EVP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY X1 94404
Jeffrey Bluestone	director	C/O PROVENTION BIO, INC., P.O. BOX 666, OLDWICK NJ 08858
Anthony Welters	director
Javier Rodriguez	director	601 HAWAII ST., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
John Francis Cogan	director	2010 NORTH FIRST STREET, SUITE 310, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Gayle E Wilson	director	C/O GILEAD SCIENCES, INC., 333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Olsen Per Wold	director	C/O GILEAD SCIENCES, 333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Sandra Horning	director	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Richard James Whitley	director	UAB, CHB 303, 1600 7TH AVENUE SOUTH, BIRMINGHAM AL 35233-1711