GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » China Huajun Group Ltd (HKSE:00377) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

China Huajun Group (HKSE:00377) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1993. Start your Free Trial

What is China Huajun Group Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Huajun Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

China Huajun Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of China Huajun Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

China Huajun Group Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » China Huajun Group Ltd (HKSE:00377) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01561 HKSE:01047 HKSE:01000 HKSE:01002 HKSE:00954 HKSE:01932 HKSE:02116 HKSE:01950 LIN XPAR:AI SHW ECL APD ISX:TPIA XSWX:GIVN XSWX:SIKA OCSE:NSIS B DD XAMS:DSFIR BOM:500820
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
130-136 Connaught Road Central, Suites 2404-2405, 24th Floor, Alliance Building, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
http://www.chinahuajungroup.com
China Huajun Group Ltd is an investment holding company. It operates in three segments: Printing, Trading & Logistics, Property Development & Investments. The majority of its revenue comes from Trading & Logistics segment, which is involved in Trading, logistics and supply chain management. Its geographical segments are PRC, the United States, Hong Kong, European countries, and other countries, of which the PRC accounts for the vast majority of its revenue.
Executives
Bao Le 2101 Beneficial owner
Meng Guang Bao 2101 Beneficial owner
Huajun Group Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Ou Ke Ji Tuan Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Ouke Group Holdings Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
China Huajun Group Limtied 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cefc (hk) Financial Holdings Company 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cefc (hk) Financial Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hua Zhi Investment Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Li Gang 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

China Huajun Group Headlines

No Headlines