KFY (Korn Ferry) Predictability Rank

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What is Korn Ferry Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Korn Ferry Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Korn Ferry Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Korn Ferry (NYSE:KFY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KFY:Germany

Address

1900 Avenue of the Stars, Suite 1500, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90067

Website

https://www.kornferry.com

Korn Ferry is a United States-based firm engaged in organizational consulting and management recruitment that helps clients fill mid- to high-level management positions. The company's segment includes Consulting; Digital; Executive Search; Professional Search & Interim; and RPO. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the Executive Search segment and Consulting segment. The consulting segment aligns organizational structure, culture, performance, development, and people to drive sustainable growth by addressing four fundamental organizational and talent needs. The Executive search segment helps organizations recruit board-level, chief executive, and other C-suite/senior executive and general management talent to deliver lasting impact.

Executives

Mark Arian	officer: CEO of Hay Group	C/O KORN/FERRY INTERNATIONAL, 1900 AVE. OF THE STARS, SUITE 2600, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Debra J Perry	director	515 RIDGEWOOD AVENUE, GLEN RIDGE NJ 07028
Gary D Burnison	director, officer: CEO	C/O KORN FERRY INTERNATIONAL, 800 CENTURY PARK EAST STE 900, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Michael Distefano	officer: See Remarks	1900 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1500, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Robert P Rozek	officer: EVP and CFO	343 STATE STREET, ROCHESTER NY 146500211
Jerry Leamon	director	C/O KORN/FERRY INTERNATIONAL, 1900 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 2600, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Matthew J Espe	director
Jeanne Macdonald	officer: CEO RPO	1900 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1500, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Charles L. Harrington	director	5875 TRINITY PKWY #300, CENTREVILLE VA 20120
Laura M Bishop	director	1900 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1500, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Byrne K Mulrooney	officer: CEO of Futurestep	2050 SPECTRUM BOULEVARD, FT. LAUDERDALE FL 33309
George T Shaheen	director
Lori Jean Robinson	director	5875 LANDERBROOK DRIVE, SUITE 220, CLEVELAND OH 44124
Len J Lauer	director	2001 EDMUND HALLEY DRIVE, RESTON VA 20191
Angel R Martinez	director	C/O TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORP, PO BOX 2353, ORLANDO FL 32802-2353